Arizona voters appear to favor incumbent Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs over Republican challenger U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs, according to a poll released Thursday by Noble Predictive Insights. The survey of likely voters gives Hobbs 48% support versus 35% for Biggs, a 13‑point margin.
Poll details and context
The poll, which carries a margin of error of +/- 3.04%, surveyed likely Arizona voters and found strong partisan splits: 75% of likely Republican voters back Biggs, while 86% of likely Democratic voters support Hobbs. Among likely independent voters, 35% said Hobbs’ choice of former Mesa Mayor John Giles as her running mate makes them more inclined to vote for her.
Hobbs entered the race without a primary opponent, while Biggs emerged from a contested primary in which he defeated Rep. David Schweikert. Noble Predictive Insights’ CEO Mike Noble said the result is not surprising given Hobbs’ statewide profile and the recent primary battle that may have left Biggs with less time to message.
Campaign messages
Hobbs’ campaign spokesperson Michael Beyers told The Center Square that the governor will continue traveling across the state, working across the aisle to cut taxes, eliminate medical debt for nearly 700,000 Arizonans, secure the border and protect water resources. He characterized Biggs’ platform as “extreme” and warned that Biggs has supported tariffs that raise costs and a 23% sales tax on all purchases.
Biggs’ campaign did not respond to requests for comment before publication.
Issue by issue
The poll asked voters which candidate they trusted more on several key issues. Hobbs led Biggs on water, housing, education, economics and data‑center development, with advantages ranging from 9 to 19 percentage points. The only category where Biggs edged ahead was immigration and border security, but only by a single point.
Both candidates are expected to emphasize border security as the election nears, and Noble noted that Hobbs’ relatively close standing on that issue is “also telling.”
Impact of lieutenant‑governor choices
Arizona voters will also decide on a lieutenant‑governor ticket for the first time after Proposition 131, passed in 2022, creates the position. Hobbs selected former Mesa Mayor John Giles, a Republican, as her running mate, a move that appears to be attracting some independent voters. Conversely, Biggs’ choice of former state Sen. Sine Kerr as his running mate is resonating with 55% of Republican voters surveyed.
Looking ahead
Noble Predictive Insights expects the race to tighten as Election Day approaches, noting that campaign messaging can shift voter preferences. He described the environment as “tough for Republicans,” citing broader economic frustrations and concerns about the Iran conflict.
While the poll shows a sizable lead for Hobbs now, both campaigns will likely intensify outreach and advertising in the weeks ahead, and voters will have the opportunity to weigh the candidates’ positions on taxes, border security, water stewardship and economic growth when they head to the polls on Nov. 3.
Original reporting: KTBS 3 (Shreveport) — read the source article.
