FOXBORO — As the Patriots head to Jacksonville for Week 3, the biggest clue to helping rookie quarterback Drake Maye find his rhythm may lie in the ground game. Coach Mike Vrabel has repeatedly stressed that the team will run the ball with purpose, especially against defenses that spread their safeties to defend the pass.
Why the run matters
Through two weeks, New England’s rushing attack sits at 4.2 yards per carry (15th in the NFL) and a modest –0.01 EPA per rush (11th best). However, when the defense lines up in a “light box” – two split safeties deep and lighter front seven – the Patriots explode. They average 9.36 yards per carry and 0.56 EPA per rush, both ranking second league‑wide, and they succeed on 64.3 percent of those plays, a third‑best rate.
Jaguars’ defensive tendencies
Jacksonville’s defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile relied on light‑box formations on 48.3 percent of snaps last season, the ninth‑most in the league. If he continues that approach, the Patriots could find ample space to hand the ball off and keep Maye out of the pocket.
Maye’s recent struggles and the path forward
Maye has faced increased scrutiny as defenses gather more film on him. He entered the season without starting right guard Mike Onwenu (ankle) and has already lost top receiver A.J. Brown (ankle). The Patriots’ passing attack is therefore thinner, making a strong rushing attack even more critical to set up manageable throws.
Cover 6 challenges
Campanile also leans heavily on Cover 6 – a hybrid of Cover 2 and Cover 4 – on 19.6 percent of dropbacks, the second‑highest rate in the NFL. Against that look, Maye has completed 10 of 15 passes for 116 yards and two interceptions (both in Week 1). His yards‑per‑attempt drops to 5.9 and he has yet to throw a touchdown in that coverage. While the sample size is small, the Patriots will need to protect Maye from those schemes, and a solid run game can keep the defense honest.
Other matchups to watch
The Patriots’ defensive tackles, highlighted by Christian Barmore’s strip‑sack that turned into a touchdown, will test Jacksonville’s offensive line, which allowed only two sacks but gave up four hits and seven hurries to the Broncos last week. Meanwhile, Jacksonville’s heavy‑personnel usage (35.2 percent of snaps in 12‑personnel) could stress New England’s nickel‑heavy defense, which employs five defensive backs on 90.4 percent of plays.
Key players
Patriots left tackle Will Campbell emphasized the importance of succeeding against light boxes: “If you can’t run the ball against a light box in the NFL, you really don’t have a shot.” On the Jaguars side, rookie wideout Parker Washington will test the Patriots secondary, though his size (5‑foot‑10, 205 lb) differs from a typical No. 1 receiver.
What the Patriots need
To give Maye a smoother start, New England must continue to exploit its top‑ranked light‑box efficiency, keep the Jaguars’ defense guessing with a balanced attack, and protect the rookie from Cover 6 pressure. If they can do that, the Patriots stand a good chance of improving to 2‑1 and building confidence for the rest of the season.
Original reporting: NBC10 Boston — read the source article.
