The upcoming Texas Senate race is turning into a decisive contest in the North Texas suburbs, where early voting opens in less than 30 days. The Dallas‑Fort Worth Metroplex, the state’s largest media market, places heightened scrutiny on voters in Tarrant, Collin and Denton counties as Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state legislator James Talarico vie for the seat.
Former Republican leaders break with party
According to a Texas Tribune report, roughly a dozen former local Republican officials have publicly announced they will either vote for Talarico – their first vote for a Democrat – or leave the ballot blank. Among them is former Southlake Mayor John Huffman, who told NBC 5 that Paxton’s personal conduct, including a highly publicized divorce and past corruption allegations, makes him untenable as a candidate.
Scott Braddock, editor of the Quorum Report Capitol newsletter, noted that the suburbs have a history of shifting allegiances even when Republicans remain competitive statewide. “In 2018, you had Senator Cruz in this race, and Democrats still picked up 12 seats in the Texas House, two seats in the Texas Senate and two seats in the Congressional delegation,” Braddock said.
Polling and demographic changes
Braddock said business and industry groups are circulating polling that shows Democrats outperforming Republicans in the suburban counties. While the report does not provide prior‑period figures, the presence of such data suggests a competitive environment.
Collin County, in particular, has experienced major corporate relocations that have brought a more diverse workforce to the area. “The Northeast part of Tarrant where Southlake is. The populations are just completely different year after year, you know, in election after election. And there are real opportunities for Republicans and Democrats,” Braddock added.
Campaign strategies and outside spending
Paxton’s campaign is emphasizing a defense of the suburbs, targeting Republican‑leaning women with a message that “suburban moms want someone who will actually fight the people putting their kids in harm’s way: Big Food, Big Pharma, and Big Tech.”
Outside groups are pouring more than $100 million into Texas to help Paxton fend off Talarico. Thousands of mailers supporting Paxton and criticizing Talarico have been distributed. The mailers were paid for by the No Going Back PAC, a newly formed group receiving millions of dollars from President Trump’s organization, according to The New York Times.
What this means for voters
Early voting provides an opportunity for North Texas residents to weigh these developments. The emerging split among traditionally Republican voters underscores the importance of each ballot, especially as demographic shifts continue to reshape the political landscape of the suburbs.
Both campaigns are expected to intensify outreach in the coming weeks, with a focus on local issues that resonate with families, faith communities, and small‑business owners across the region.
Original reporting: Dallas TX News (HLL/CB) — read the source article.
