Recent analysis of Optimal Blue’s Mortgage Pricing Insights reveals a notable shift in the U.S. mortgage landscape. In July 2020, conforming loans accounted for 73.1% of rate‑lock volume. By July 2026 that share had dropped to 47%, marking the first time since at least January 2018 that conforming mortgages fell below a majority.
Growth of non‑qualified mortgages
Non‑qualified mortgage (Non‑QM) loans have risen steadily. In August 2020 they represented about 1.4% of rate‑locks; by August 2025 that figure grew to 8.34%, and in August 2026 it surpassed 11%. The August‑2026 data also show investor and debt‑service‑coverage‑ratio (DSCR) loans making up more than 35% of Non‑QM production, while bank‑statement loans accounted for nearly 30%.
Broader non‑conforming segment
From July 2024 to July 2026, the broader non‑conforming bucket—including jumbo and Non‑QM loans—expanded from 12.4% to nearly 21% of rate‑lock volume, an increase of roughly 8.6 percentage points. This growth reflects a more fragmented market that serves borrowers who fall outside traditional agency underwriting, such as real‑estate investors and self‑employed borrowers.
Factors driving the shift
Rising home prices and higher conforming loan limits also play a role. The Federal Housing Finance Agency raised the baseline conforming loan limit to $832,750 for 2026, yet large‑balance loans continue to move into non‑conforming channels. Bank of America Securities estimates that loans above $1 million will represent about 28% of new Non‑QM production in 2026, up from 20% in 2018.
Risk profile and performance
While the label “Non‑QM” can evoke concerns about credit quality, the products in this segment vary widely. Investor DSCR loans rely on rental cash flow, and bank‑statement loans use documented deposits rather than tax‑return income. Delinquency rates have risen among Non‑QM loans originated between 2022 and 2024, particularly cash‑out refinances, but overall losses remain low—about 3.6 basis points on roughly $281 billion of Non‑QM loans originated since 2018. Loans originated in 2025 have shown improved performance as lenders tightened standards.
Implications for borrowers and lenders
The data suggest that the mortgage market is adapting to how Americans earn income, invest in property, and finance increasingly expensive homes. While conforming loans remain the largest single category at 47% of rate‑lock volume, the loss of a majority underscores the growing importance of alternative underwriting approaches.
Methodology note
Griffin Funding’s analysis draws from Optimal Blue’s publicly reported rate‑lock shares. Optimal Blue’s platform prices and locks more than one‑third of U.S. mortgages, but the figures do not represent a complete census of all mortgage activity. Non‑conforming figures combine jumbo and Non‑QM loans, and gap months without data were omitted from the analysis.
Original reporting: KRDO (Colorado Springs metro) — read the source article.
