The 2025‑26 NFL season delivered plenty of nail‑biting finishes, but close‑game success rarely repeats. By examining each team’s record in games decided by seven points or fewer, as well as expected points added (EPA) per play, we can spot likely regression candidates and potential turnarounds for the 2026‑27 campaign.
Why one‑score games matter
One‑score games—those decided by seven points or fewer—are essentially coin flips. A team that wins many of these contests often does so by luck rather than sustained superiority, making its record vulnerable to reversal the following year. Conversely, teams that lose a disproportionate number of close games may be poised for improvement if the odds swing back in their favor.
Teams with strong one‑score records
The Denver Broncos finished the season with the best overall record and the most one‑score victories, going 9‑2 in games decided by seven points or less and 6‑2 in contests decided by three points or fewer. A younger quarterback thriving under Sean Payton and a formidable defense helped the Broncos secure those wins. Their EPA per play ranked them in the top ten on both offense and defense, though the offense slightly under‑performed its metric. Despite these positives, DraftKings set the Broncos’ win total at 9.5, suggesting bookmakers anticipate some regression.
The Philadelphia Eagles posted the second‑most one‑score wins with eight, but they also suffered four one‑score losses, indicating a mixed picture.
San Francisco recorded the highest win percentage in one‑score games, going 5‑1, while the Jacksonville Jaguars and Los Angeles Chargers each finished 6‑2. The New England Patriots, Carolina Panthers and Pittsburgh Steelers all posted 7‑3 records in this category.
Teams that excelled in the tightest contests
The Chargers (4‑1) and Panthers (6‑2) were especially effective in games decided by a field goal or less. DraftKings gave both clubs a win total of 9.5, with the Panthers also receiving plus‑money on the over.
Potential regression candidates
At the opposite end of the spectrum, the Kansas City Chiefs struggled in close games, posting a 1‑9 record overall and 1‑6 in field‑goal‑or‑less contests. While the return of Patrick Mahomes from injury is already factored into betting lines, the Chiefs’ win total sits at 10.5 with odds of -205 to make the playoffs.
Other teams with poor one‑score records include the New York Giants (1‑6), Washington Commanders (1‑5), Arizona Cardinals (2‑8) and Las Vegas Raiders (2‑5). These clubs finished near the bottom of the league in overall standings as well.
Bounce‑back possibilities
Despite their disappointing close‑game performance, the Baltimore Ravens (1‑4) and Detroit Lions (2‑5) remain attractive bounce‑back candidates. Both clubs missed the postseason by narrow margins and have win totals set at 11.5 (Ravens) and 10.5 (Lions), indicating market belief in a potential turnaround.
How to use the data
Betting enthusiasts can apply these metrics when evaluating NFL futures odds. Teams with strong one‑score records may be overvalued, while those with weak records could be undervalued. Keep an eye on EPA per play rankings for additional insight into whether a team’s performance aligns with its win‑loss record.
This analysis was produced by SBD using Sportradar data and reviewed by Stacker.
Original reporting: KRDO (Colorado Springs metro) — read the source article.
