The 2025‑26 NFL season delivered plenty of nail‑biting finishes, but history shows that success in one‑score games rarely repeats. As the league looks ahead to 2026‑27, we examine the metrics that signal potential regression and those that hint at a bounce‑back.
Why one‑score games matter
Close games—defined as contests decided by seven points or fewer—are notoriously volatile. A team that wins many of these matchups often does so by a thin margin of luck rather than sustained superiority. When the odds swing the other way, a club’s win total can tumble dramatically.
Key metrics to watch
Two statistics help separate paper tigers from genuine contenders: a team’s record in one‑score games and its Expected Points Added (EPA) per play relative to offensive and defensive rankings. EPA measures how efficiently a team creates scoring opportunities compared to league averages.
Teams likely to regress
Denver Broncos topped the league with a 9‑2 record in games decided by seven points or less, including a 6‑2 mark in contests decided by three points or fewer. Despite a top‑10 EPA ranking on both sides of the ball, sportsbooks have trimmed the Broncos’ win total to 9.5, suggesting bettors expect some regression.
Philadelphia Eagles recorded eight one‑score wins but also suffered four one‑score losses, indicating a mixed fortune that could even out next year.
San Francisco 49ers posted a 5‑1 record in close games, the league’s best win percentage, yet they participated in fewer such contests, limiting the predictive power of that metric.
The Los Angeles Chargers (4‑1) and Carolina Panthers (6‑2) excelled in games decided by a field goal or less. Both clubs have win totals set at 9.5 and 7.5 respectively, with the over‑under offering value for bettors who anticipate a slight pull‑back.
At the opposite end, the Kansas City Chiefs endured a 1‑9 record in one‑score games, including 1‑6 in field‑goal contests. While the return of Patrick Mahomes from injury is baked into odds, the Chiefs’ win total sits at 10.5, and they are -205 to make the playoffs.
Potential bounce‑back candidates
Teams that fell short in close games but remain competitive could rebound. The Baltimore Ravens posted a 1‑4 one‑score record, while the Detroit Lions went 2‑5. Both clubs have win totals of 11.5 (Ravens) and 10.5 (Lions), indicating market confidence in a turnaround.
Other clubs with subpar close‑game performance—New York Giants (1‑6), Washington Commanders (1‑5), Arizona Cardinals (2‑8) and Las Vegas Raiders (2‑5)—are also among the league’s bottom six in this metric, making them risky bets for the upcoming season.
How bettors can use the data
When evaluating futures odds, consider both a team’s one‑score record and its EPA ranking. A strong EPA score paired with a poor close‑game record may signal an overvalued win total, while a modest EPA but a solid one‑score record could indicate undervaluation.
For example, the Broncos’ top‑10 EPA suggests quality play, yet their 9‑2 close‑game record may have inflated expectations. Conversely, the Ravens’ low one‑score win total combined with a respectable EPA could make their 11.5 win line an attractive proposition.
Bottom line
One‑score games are a useful barometer for NFL regression risk, but they should be weighed alongside EPA efficiency and broader roster moves. As teams adjust in the offseason, the 2026‑27 season promises both surprise setbacks and promising comebacks. Fans and bettors alike should keep an eye on these metrics when setting expectations for the year ahead.
Original reporting: KEYT (Ventura/Santa Barbara) — read the source article.
