Kalshi, the leading prediction‑market platform, is intensifying its lobbying push as state attorneys general seek to ban or heavily regulate the industry. The company argues that its swaps are already overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), a federal agency, and should not be re‑classified as gambling.
State‑level pushback
More than 40 state attorneys general have signed a July letter urging the CFTC to recognize prediction markets as a “new form of casino” and to defer to state gambling laws. Several lawsuits are now before federal courts, and judges remain divided on whether state law applies.
Kalshi’s $3 million lobbying effort
According to OpenSecrets, Kalshi, its rival Polymarket and the Coalition for Prediction Markets have collectively spent at least $3 million on lobbying and campaign contributions in 2026. The company has hired lobbyists in 41 states, most of them since April, and is concentrating its spending in California and New York.
In California, Kalshi reported $62,000 in lobbying expenses in the first half of 2026, focusing on three assembly bills and communications with the Attorney General’s and Governor’s offices. In New York, the firm increased monthly payments to Brown & Weinraub Advisors from $10,000 to $25,000 and contracted with the Mirram Group for $25,000 per month through July 2027, projecting over $400,000 in state‑level lobbying there.
Bipartisan political contributions
Kalshi’s contributions span the aisle. In the first half of 2026 it gave $147,500 to the Republican Attorneys General Association and $170,000 to the Democratic Attorneys General Association. The firm also donated $100,000 to the Republican Governors Association and $150,000 to the Democratic Governors Association.
Direct donations have been made to individual attorneys general, including a super PAC supporting Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s Senate bid and campaigns of Vermont’s Charity Clark, Oregon’s Dan Rayfield and Florida’s James Utheimer. Both Rayfield and Clark said the contributions do not influence their actions.
Federal lobbying and Trump‑family ties
Kalshi’s federal lobbying remains robust, with nearly $1 million spent through June 30. The company opened a Washington, D.C., office led by John Bivona, a former Biden‑campaign and DHS liaison. Outside firms include Miller Strategies, which received $240,000 in the first half of 2026; its head, Jeff Miller, served as finance chair for President Donald Trump’s second inaugural committee.
Donald Trump Jr., a strategic advisor to Kalshi and Polymarket, has urged Republican state attorneys general not to fight prediction markets. His venture‑capital firm holds an equity stake in Kalshi.
Potential impact
If the Supreme Court ultimately decides that prediction markets fall under state gambling laws, Kalshi’s extensive state‑level lobbying could shape the resulting legislation. As Better Markets director Benjamin Schriffin notes, existing gambling statutes were written for sports and casino games, not for betting on events like reality‑show outcomes.
Kalshi’s spokesperson Dani Lever said the company “supports candidates on both sides of the aisle,” emphasizing its commitment to a regulatory framework that allows prediction markets to operate under existing federal oversight.
Original reporting: KEYT (Ventura/Santa Barbara) — read the source article.
