Kalshi, the market leader in prediction‑market platforms, is leading a $3 million lobbying push in 2026 to ensure that its services remain regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission rather than state gambling authorities. The company argues that its contracts are swaps, which fall under federal jurisdiction, while many states contend they are a form of gambling.
State‑level pushback
More than 40 state attorneys general have signed a letter to the CFTC calling prediction markets a “new form of casino,” urging state gambling laws to apply. Several lawsuits are already before federal courts, and the issue may eventually reach the Supreme Court.
Kalshi’s political contributions
According to OpenSecrets, Kalshi and its allies have contributed at least $3 million to federal and state campaigns. In the first half of 2026 the firm gave $147,500 to the Republican Attorneys General Association and $170,000 to the Democratic Attorneys General Association. It also donated to individual attorneys general and to the Republican and Democratic Governors Associations.
Kalshi’s donations include $100,000 to the Republican Governors Association and $150,000 to the Democratic Governors Association, as well as contributions to the super PAC backing Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s Senate bid and to campaigns of Vermont Attorney General Charity Clark, Oregon Attorney General Dan Rayfield, and Florida Attorney General James Utheimer.
Lobbying footprint
Kalshi now has at least one registered lobbyist in 41 states, most hired since April. The firm’s biggest state‑level spending is in California ($62,000) and New York (over $400,000 projected through July 2027). In California, lobbying is handled by Redwood Public Affairs and the Weideman Group; in New York, Kalshi works with Brown & Weinraub Advisors, the Mirram Group, and its own in‑house lobbyist Blake Bee.
Federal lobbying effort
On the federal side, Kalshi has spent nearly $1 million through June 30. Its Washington, D.C., office is led by John Bivona, a former Biden‑campaign official. The firm’s top outside firm is Miller Strategies, which received $240,000 in the first half of 2026; the firm’s head, Jeff Miller, served as finance chair for President Trump’s second inaugural committee.
Other federal lobbying partners include Lincoln Policy Group ($120,000), founded by former Senator Blanche Lincoln, and several smaller firms. Kalshi has disclosed lobbying on three Senate bills: the Prediction Market Act, the Protect College Sports Act, and the National Defense Authorization Act.
Industry perspective
Better Markets director Benjamin Schriffin notes that most state gambling statutes were written for sports betting and casino games, not for the novel “event contracts” offered by prediction markets. He warns that states may feel compelled to rewrite their laws to cover these new forms of wagering.
Kalshi’s strategic advisor Donald Trump Jr. has urged Republican state attorneys general not to oppose prediction markets, while his venture‑capital firm holds equity in both Kalshi and competitor Polymarket.
As the legal battle unfolds, Kalshi’s extensive lobbying may shape how prediction markets are regulated, potentially keeping them under federal oversight and limiting a patchwork of state gambling restrictions.
Original reporting: KTVZ (Central Oregon) — read the source article.
