Washington – The Labor Department’s September report is expected to show that the U.S. job market remains sturdy under President Trump’s administration. Forecasters surveyed by FactSet project that employers added about 90,000 jobs last month, keeping the unemployment rate near 4.1%. Layoffs continue to be rare, and most workers report feeling secure in their positions.
Confidence indexes tell a different story
Nevertheless, ordinary Americans are not sharing that optimism. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell this month to its lowest level in more than a decade. More than 28% of respondents said they expect fewer jobs in six months, double the 14% who anticipate more opportunities.
Glassdoor’s employee confidence index, which gauges how workers view prospects at their own companies, also slipped to its lowest point since the platform began tracking in early 2016. The index recorded its third low of the year, and Glassdoor chief economist Daniel Zhao warned that “employee confidence has been continuously grinding downwards over the last year as workers grow increasingly anxious about everything from layoffs to AI.”
Poll shows mixed approval of the administration’s handling of the economy
A Thursday poll from the Associated Press‑NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that only 17% of U.S. adults approve of President Trump’s handling of the cost of living, and just 26% approve of his overall management of the economy – a new low for the administration.
While the poll reflects a snapshot of public sentiment, it does not change the underlying labor‑market data. Economists describe the current environment as a “low‑hire, low‑fire” market: jobs are secure for those who have them, but job seekers find it harder to obtain new positions. In August, the average unemployed worker had been out of work for more than six months, the longest stretch since February 2022.
Why hiring has slowed
Researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco note that the job search has become tougher for groups that traditionally rebound quickly, such as workers aged 25‑54 with college degrees. They point to several possible factors, including the administration’s immigration enforcement, hiring slowdowns at technology firms and government contractors, early effects of AI‑related displacement, and uncertainty over future policy direction.
Demographic shifts also play a role. Baby‑boomer retirements and tighter immigration enforcement have reduced the pool of workers competing for jobs, lowering the “break‑even” hiring rate that keeps the unemployment rate steady. Some economists estimate that the break‑even rate could be as low as zero new jobs per month.
Hiring numbers still outpace past lows
Despite the slowdown, employers have added an average of 80,000 jobs per month so far this year—well above the 2025 average of 9,700 jobs per month, which was the weakest hiring outside a recession since 2002. However, this figure remains below the 166,000 monthly jobs created in 2023‑2024 and far short of the 491,000 jobs per month recorded during the 2021‑2022 post‑pandemic hiring boom.
“We are seeing a modest improvement,” Zhao said, “but whether that’s enough to really make workers feel good about the job market is a different question.”
Looking ahead
The mixed picture of solid job creation and declining confidence arrives just weeks before voters head to the polls for the midterm elections, which will determine whether Republican majorities retain control of Congress. As the campaign season intensifies, the administration is likely to emphasize the strength of the labor market while acknowledging the public’s concerns about cost‑of‑living pressures.
Original reporting: Alexandria, VA News – WTOP News — read the source article.
