Washington — The latest employment outlook points to a modest slowdown in September job growth, but the unemployment rate is projected to hold steady at 4.1% for the third consecutive month. The forecast suggests the labor market remains stable as the country moves into the fourth quarter.
Payroll outlook
Economists surveyed by Reuters expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by roughly 90,000 jobs in September, down from the 162,000 surge recorded in August. Estimates range from a low of 35,000 to a high of 180,000. The August figure is likely to be revised lower once the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) applies its seasonal‑adjustment model to the September data, a process that analysts say may have overstated the August gain.
“I am expecting a reaffirmation of the ‘low‑hire, low‑fire’ American labor market,” said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. “We are at full employment, and I don’t see anything in the jobs report that would cause the Federal Reserve to change its bias toward another rate hike this year.”
Economic backdrop
Robust corporate profit growth and resilient domestic demand continue to shield workers from layoffs. Historically low layoff rates are a key factor in the market’s stability, while modest hiring keeps the economy humming.
Wage growth remains moderate, with year‑over‑year earnings projected to increase 3.2% in September, up slightly from 3.1% in August. This pace supports the view that the labor market is not a primary source of inflationary pressure.
Policy influences
The Trump administration’s immigration enforcement, which includes increased deportations, has reduced the labor supply, helping to keep the unemployment rate low. Economists estimate the economy needs between 50,000 and 80,000 new jobs each month to match the growth of the working‑age population.
In addition, the administration’s focus on energy independence and supply‑chain resilience is expected to mitigate the impact of high diesel prices and ongoing tariffs, which have been sources of concern for manufacturers.
Sector outlook
Employment growth is expected to moderate in leisure and hospitality as well as local‑government education, following the strong August gains. Construction payrolls are forecast to remain strong, driven in part by data‑center projects that support artificial‑intelligence technology.
The manufacturing sector is projected to record a fourth straight month of double‑digit job gains, bolstered by infrastructure investments tied to AI and other advanced technologies.
Monetary policy
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points last month, moving it into the 3.75%‑4.00% range—the first hike in three years. While markets had previously priced a roughly 69% chance of another increase at the upcoming October 27‑28 meeting, the probability has fallen to about 28% after cooler‑than‑expected inflation readings for August and July.
“An unemployment rate that falls because of lower participation due to demographic forces is not necessarily a tightening labor market that is generating upward pressure on wages,” said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup.
Looking ahead
Economists note that the termination of Temporary Protected Status for hundreds of thousands of Haitian immigrants could introduce a mild headwind to payroll growth, but the impact is expected to be gradual rather than a sudden shock.
Overall, the employment picture suggests a stable labor market, with the Trump administration’s policies playing a supportive role in maintaining low unemployment while the economy continues to adapt to global challenges.
Original reporting: Appleton, WI News Feed (HLL/CB) — read the source article.
