During an October 21 edition of the “Hammer and Nigel” hotline, Indianapolis‑based broadcaster Tony Kinnett, host of The Tony Kinnett Cast on 93.1 WIBC, warned listeners that the upcoming midterm elections may be far tighter than the prevailing national polling averages suggest.
Polling methodology under scrutiny
Kinnett pointed to a polling firm he referred to as Wedgewood, noting that the firm’s online surveys had been removed from a major polling aggregator. He argued that once those surveys are excluded, the remaining averages show many Midwestern races sitting inside the statistical margin of error. In his view, the omission of certain online polls creates a misleading picture of certainty for candidates who appear to be leading.
He also criticized the geographic weighting of some surveys, citing the example of Ann Arbor, Michigan, where college‑town demographics may skew results in ways that do not reflect the broader electorate. “In my heart, and the data says that this election is a lot closer than all of these pollsters around the country are pretending,” Kinnett said.
Historical polling misses noted
Co‑hosts Hammer and Nigel agreed that several high‑profile races this cycle have defied early expectations, with some candidates who were projected to win comfortably ending up in close contests or even losing outright. Kinnett concurred, acknowledging that polling has missed the mark in previous cycles and urging voters to treat the numbers with caution.
Ilhan Omar investigation framed as immigration issue
Switching topics, Kinnett addressed the ongoing federal investigation involving Rep. Ilhan Omar. He suggested that public expectations of a criminal indictment may be misplaced. According to Kinnett, if investigators determine that Omar lied to obtain citizenship, the matter would be handled as an immigration case rather than a criminal trial. “A grand jury really doesn’t have a say in this because grand juries aren’t for immigration cases,” he explained.
What’s next on the airwaves
Kinnett announced that his show will continue to explore the polling narrative later that night, promising deeper analysis of the data and methodology concerns. He also mentioned his upcoming participation in the “Roast of Nigel” scheduled for November 21.
Listeners can follow the ongoing discussion on WIBC’s website and tune in to future episodes of the cast for more insight into how polling trends may shape the 2026 midterm outcomes.
Original reporting: 93.1 WIBC (Indianapolis) — read the source article.
