European Union diplomats are watching Iceland’s upcoming referendum closely, hoping a positive outcome will improve the bloc’s image as it seeks new members. Iceland, a NATO ally that already participates in the EU single market through the European Economic Area, will vote on August 29 whether to reopen membership negotiations.
Why Iceland matters to the EU
Although the vote does not decide membership itself, a restart could signal the EU’s attractiveness to other hopeful candidates such as Montenegro, Albania, Ukraine and Moldova. A senior EU diplomat said a favorable result would “boost morale in the EU” and make it easier for skeptical countries to accept future enlargements.
Public opinion and the vote
Gallup’s latest poll shows Icelanders evenly split: 46% would vote yes, 46% no, and 8% undecided. Historically, a majority of Icelanders have opposed full EU membership, but supporters argue that joining could help the island nation tackle high living costs, strengthen its position against larger trade partners, and address shifting Arctic geopolitics.
Potential impact on other accession talks
EU officials suggest that pairing Iceland’s accession with Montenegro’s bid could ease concerns among EU citizens wary of enlargement’s economic impact. “Tying up Iceland with Montenegro would probably be more successful,” said Steven Blockmans of the International Centre for Defence and Security.
Fisheries: the toughest hurdle
Should Icelanders approve restarting talks, EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos expects negotiations to last one to two years, pending a second Icelandic referendum and ratification by all 27 EU members. The most contentious issue is likely fisheries, a cornerstone of Iceland’s economy and identity. EU officials acknowledge the need to find a compromise that respects Iceland’s sensitivities while addressing the bloc’s broader interests.
Geopolitical backdrop
Iceland halted its earlier EU negotiations in 2013 after a Eurosceptic government took power. Recent events—Russia’s war in Ukraine and former President Donald Trump’s comments on Greenland—have renewed interest in Iceland’s strategic location. A source familiar with Iceland’s position noted concerns about the erosion of international law and the importance of security and defence considerations.
EU officials have largely stayed out of Iceland’s internal debate, but they see the referendum as a barometer of the EU’s appeal in a rapidly changing world. Kos said, “We see that practically all European countries seek accession or closer association to the EU, and a positive Iceland vote would add to the momentum for new members.”
Original reporting: Appleton, WI News Feed (HLL/CB) — read the source article.
