Global biofuel output is projected to jump almost 70% by 2030 compared with 2025 levels, according to a study released Tuesday by the London‑based think tank Chatham House and the non‑profit certification group the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC). The surge is being driven by a wave of higher blending mandates announced by major producing nations in response to the energy crisis sparked by the Iran war.
Mandates fuel rapid growth
Countries including Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, the United States and the European Union have either proposed or adopted stricter biofuel blending requirements since the conflict began in February. The study estimates that if all of these mandates are fully implemented, the land required to grow biofuel feedstocks could more than double by 2030 relative to 2023, adding roughly 36 million hectares – an area comparable to the size of Germany.
First‑generation versus advanced biofuels
Biofuels such as ethanol are typically derived from food crops or animal feed, known as first‑generation biofuels. These include corn, sugarcane and other staple crops. While they can be blended with gasoline or diesel to improve fuel security, the authors caution that first‑generation feedstocks often have “net negative consequences for land degradation, food security and water use.”
In contrast, second‑generation or advanced biofuels are produced from organic residues and waste materials, such as used cooking oil or agricultural by‑products. The study notes that feedstocks grown on degraded land or between crop seasons can help restore soil health, but such practices are not yet widespread.
Risks to food security and the environment
“By prioritizing energy security in the short term, some policy responses may be trading off against increased food insecurity in the medium term,” the authors wrote. They warn that an abrupt rise in demand for feedstocks could outpace the development of environmental safeguards, certification systems, land‑use planning and enforcement mechanisms.
Crude oil prices have risen nearly 40% since the Iran war began, while global sugar and corn prices have climbed about 20%, making biofuels more competitive but also intensifying pressure on agricultural markets.
Implications for policymakers
The study calls for a balanced approach that safeguards both energy independence and the nation’s food supply. It recommends expanding the use of degraded or marginal lands for feedstock production and accelerating the deployment of advanced biofuel technologies that rely on waste streams rather than food crops.
As governments worldwide grapple with the twin challenges of rising energy costs and food price volatility, the findings underscore the need for careful policy design that protects families, supports traditional agricultural communities, and respects the stewardship principles championed by faith‑based and family‑oriented groups.
Original reporting: Appleton, WI News Feed (HLL/CB) — read the source article.
