The latest data from AAA shows the national average price for regular gasoline climbing to roughly $4.47 a gallon, just under a tenth of a dollar below the 2026 peak of $4.56 set in May. That represents a jump of more than 40 cents in the past month, 17 cents in the last week, and over $1.25 compared with a year ago.
Expert warnings and market pressures
University of Houston energy expert Ed Hirs told Hearst Television that $5 per gallon nationwide is now a realistic possibility, and localized spot shortages could push prices well above $6 or even $7 in some markets. He attributes the risk to reduced crude‑oil flows, refinery maintenance, and ongoing disruptions in the Middle East, where the war with Iran continues to affect production and shipping routes.
While oil prices fell slightly on Friday, Brent crude settled around $104.87 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate near $100.30, leaving the market vulnerable to further spikes.
Administration actions to ease the burden
President Trump has repeatedly said he expects fuel prices to fall once the war with Iran ends, noting, “And you watch what happens to your oil, to your gasoline. It’s gonna come down very quickly.” In line with that outlook, the Trump administration took two concrete steps in March.
First, it authorized the release of 172 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as part of a coordinated 400‑million‑barrel release with International Energy Agency partners. The Energy Department estimates the U.S. portion will take about 120 days to reach the market.
Second, the Environmental Protection Agency issued an emergency waiver that allowed the transition from summer‑grade gasoline to cheaper winter‑grade fuel to begin on Sept. 1, roughly two weeks earlier than usual. EPA officials said the early switch would add hundreds of thousands of barrels of gasoline per day to the domestic supply, a move intended to help lower prices.
Hirs acknowledged the early winter‑blend transition has made only a “marginal difference,” and he warned that the administration is nearing the limit of what it can do without broader market relief.
Impact beyond the pump
Diesel prices have also surged, reaching a national average of about $6.45 per gallon, nearly a dollar higher than a month ago and more than $2.70 above the level a year ago. Higher diesel costs affect truckers, farmers, and construction crews, ultimately feeding into the price of groceries and other goods.
Brown University’s Climate Solutions Lab estimates the average U.S. household has already spent over $837 extra on gasoline and diesel since the Iran war began on Feb. 28, a cumulative cost that has surpassed $100 billion nationwide.
Outlook
Oil markets remain volatile, with daily price swings driven by refinery output, inventory levels, transportation costs, and regional supply conditions. While the administration’s release of strategic reserves and the early winter‑blend transition provide short‑term relief, experts caution that lasting stability will depend on resolving the underlying geopolitical tensions.
For now, drivers across the country will continue to see prices move upward, underscoring the importance of both market‑based solutions and prudent federal action.
Original reporting: WLKY Louisville — read the source article.
