Florida’s economic outlook has brightened, according to a 10‑year forecast released today by Florida TaxWatch in partnership with the Regional Economic Consulting Group. The report, covering 2026‑2036, cites clearer national tariff policy and productivity gains from artificial intelligence as key drivers of the improved outlook.
Reduced Uncertainty and Clearer Trade Policy
Jeff Kottkamp, president and CEO of Florida TaxWatch, said the latest forecast reflects a deflation of the uncertainty that peaked in the previous report. He noted that the Supreme Court’s February decision striking down the president’s primary tariff authority created temporary tariffs that stalled business decisions. With a more permanent tariff framework on the horizon, companies can now plan hiring and expansion with greater confidence.
Employment Projections
The new projections move the unemployment peak forward to this year, estimating a rate of 4.51%, about 0.3 percentage points lower than earlier expectations. After that peak, unemployment is expected to decline steadily, reaching 4.07% by 2036. Over the decade, the total employed population is projected to grow from 11.17 million to 12.17 million.
AI‑Powered Growth
Long‑term growth, Kottkamp said, is being shaped largely by artificial intelligence. AI‑related productivity gains are already appearing in macroeconomic data, lifting yearly GDP growth projections. Florida’s real gross domestic product is expected to expand at an average of more than 3.4% per year over the next ten years, roughly half a percentage point higher than the previous forecast.
Tourism and Consumer Spending
Tourism, which suffered in earlier forecasts, is showing renewed momentum. Annual tourism growth is projected to be modest through the remainder of 2026, then accelerate to about 2.5% per year by 2028. Visitor numbers are expected to rise from 143.4 million in 2026 to 183.3 million in 2036, a near‑28% increase.
Consumer spending has also held up better than analysts expected, despite rising energy costs linked to tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Stronger aggregate demand provides a buffer for the labor market.
Population Trends
Florida’s rapid population growth is expected to moderate but remain robust. The state is projected to add roughly 2.5 million residents by 2036, with daily net migration slowing from about 895 people per day in 2026 to 680 by the end of the decade. Researchers anticipate the slowdown will level out in the mid‑2030s, allowing population growth to stabilize while continuing beyond the forecast horizon.
Overall, the forecast paints a picture of a resilient Florida economy, buoyed by clearer trade policy, AI‑driven productivity, and steady tourism and population growth.
Original reporting: Tampa Free Press — read the source article.
