Flagstaff, AZ – The National Weather Service in Flagstaff confirmed that the recent weekend storms have produced the wettest fall in the city’s recorded history. Four consecutive storm systems dumped record‑breaking precipitation, leaving the ground nearly saturated and raising concerns about winter snow and potential flooding.
Record‑setting precipitation
According to Megan Taylor, a warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service, the amount of rain this fall surpasses anything she has observed in her 16 years on the job. “It’s pretty rare. I haven’t quite seen a pattern like this in the 16 years that I’ve been here,” Taylor said.
The storms filled Lower Lake Mary with an estimated 2.6 billion gallons of water, a dramatic rise that underscores the intensity of the rainfall. Taylor explained that the flooding was especially severe because the soil was already near its saturation point from the previous three storms. “When the ground is already nearly completely saturated, additional rain that falls is basically like falling on concrete,” she noted.
El Niño’s role and snow‑pack outlook
Taylor linked the unusually wet conditions to a strong El Niño pattern, which historically boosts precipitation in the region. “Flagstaff averages about 140 inches during those strong El Niño years, which we typically average about 90,” she said.
While the heavy rain has raised the water table, it also sets the stage for a potentially active winter. More frequent snowfall events can increase the threat of flooding, especially if rapid melts occur. “More frequent snowfall events can enhance the threat for flooding,” Taylor warned. “So I know we’ve been through a lot this fall, but don’t let your guard down because there’s potentially an active winter moving our way.”
Preparation advice for residents and visitors
The National Weather Service urges Flagstaff residents to prepare their vehicles for snow and icy conditions. Drivers should check tires, brakes, and windshield wipers before heading out. Visitors planning trips to see the snow should also inspect their vehicles and pack emergency supplies, including food, water, and a charger, in case they become stranded.
Road closures remain a possibility even with modest storms, depending on local conditions. Authorities recommend staying informed through local weather updates and following any road‑closure notices promptly.
Looking ahead
With the ground still saturated and El Niño expected to persist through the winter months, officials will continue monitoring river levels, snowpack depth, and flood‑risk zones. Residents are encouraged to stay vigilant, keep emergency kits ready, and heed any advisories issued by the National Weather Service or local emergency management officials.
For the latest forecasts and safety recommendations, Flagstaff citizens can visit the National Weather Service’s Flagstaff office website or follow local news outlets for real‑time updates.
Original reporting: azfamily KTVK/KPHO Phoenix (news) — read the source article.
