As wildfires continue to ravage the nation, a new trend has emerged: betting on the outcome of these disasters. Platforms like Polymarket allow users to wager on the number of acres burned, the locations affected, and the duration of the fires. However, experts warn that this could have devastating consequences, including incentivizing arson and devaluing human life.

Concerns Over Arson and Exploitation

Kaitlyn Trudeau, a California-based climate scientist, lost her grandfather’s home to the Eaton fire last year. She believes that betting on wildfires is ‘pretty dystopian’ and could create a financial incentive for individuals to start fires. Ed Nordskog, a retired Los Angeles County Sheriff’s arson investigator, agrees, citing a connection between obsessive gambling and fire setting.

Lauren Ducat, a clinical and forensic psychologist, notes that the accessibility of online platforms has made these wagers more pervasive and open to larger markets. Ann Skeet, senior director of leadership ethics at Santa Clara University, argues that betting on someone’s potential death or harm devalues human life.

Regulation and Ethics

Polymarket claims that its platform provides valuable information during disasters, but experts are calling for greater regulation and oversight. California Governor Gavin Newsom has strengthened a ban on insider trading by state officials on prediction market platforms, and representatives from Utah and California have introduced bipartisan legislation to prohibit certain activities.

While some proponents argue that prediction markets could be an alternative to insurance, especially in high-risk areas, others believe that it could prey on people’s fear and make money from it. Moran Cerf, a neuroscientist at Columbia Business School, suggests that participating in prediction markets could shift people’s attitudes towards climate change, but notes that the current form of these platforms is like the ‘Wild West’.

Original reporting: KEYT (Ventura/Santa Barbara) — read the source article.