Regional forces in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region seized control of three airports on Wednesday and engaged federal troops in multiple flashpoints, marking the start of a new large‑scale offensive after months of mounting tension.
Breakdown of the peace accord
The Pretoria Agreement, which formally ended the 2020‑2022 war that claimed hundreds of thousands of lives, has been under strain for months. Both sides have accused each other of violating its terms. A hard‑line faction within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) recently reasserted control over the region, ousting an interim administration and forming an alliance with six other armed groups from across Ethiopia, including former adversaries, with the stated goal of toppling Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government.
Potential regional spillover
Analysts warn that renewed fighting in Tigray could quickly expand beyond Ethiopia’s borders. The Horn of Africa already faces a volatile security environment: Sudan is embroiled in a brutal civil war, Somalia remains unstable, and longstanding disputes over Nile water rights involve Egypt and Sudan. Ethiopia has been accused—though it denies it—of supporting the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan, a claim that aligns with concerns about the United Arab Emirates’ involvement in the region.
Eritrea’s role is also under scrutiny. Relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara have been tense since Eritrea’s independence in 1993. While Prime Minister Abiy earned a Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for ending two decades of hostility with Eritrea, the two countries have since drifted apart. Eritrea denied allegations that it is financially backing members of the TPLF‑aligned alliance.
Red Sea access and recent U.S. policy
Access to the Red Sea remains a flash point. Ethiopia, a land‑locked nation since Eritrea’s secession, has long argued that regaining a corridor to the port of Assab is vital for its security and economic development. Eritrea has expressed concern that Ethiopia might attempt to seize Assab by force.
Earlier this month the United States lifted sanctions on Eritrean Defense Forces and related entities. The move was viewed by some as a nod from the Trump administration to Eritrea’s strategic coastline opposite Saudi Arabia, while also serving as a warning to Ethiopia against escalating the conflict.
What lies ahead
The situation remains fluid. It is unclear how many fighters from the TPLF‑led alliance participated in Wednesday’s clashes, but Ethiopia hosts numerous heavily armed regional militias. The international community is watching closely, fearing that a renewed Tigray war could draw in neighboring states and further destabilize an already fragile region.
Diplomats stress the importance of preserving the Pretoria Agreement and preventing a broader regional war that would exacerbate humanitarian crises already affecting millions across the Horn of Africa.
Original reporting: Appleton, WI News Feed (HLL/CB) — read the source article.
