President Trump’s administration is monitoring a powerful El Niño that is expected to peak this fall and winter. While the United States has ample agricultural capacity, the climate anomaly is likely to raise the price of several beloved food items, including coffee, chocolate and palm‑oil, according to leading economists.

How El Niño works and why it matters

El Niño is a periodic climate cycle that warms sea‑surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific. The resulting shift in global weather patterns brings drought to some regions—such as parts of Australia—and heavy rains to others, including eastern Africa and Southeast Asia. Those weather extremes affect the harvests of crops that supply the U.S. market.

Impact on coffee and palm‑oil producers

Brazil and Vietnam, two of the world’s largest coffee‑growing nations, often experience altered rainfall during El Niño events. Central‑American coffee farms are already reporting reduced precipitation, while Indonesia, a major palm‑oil producer, faces drought and record‑level wildfires that threaten its output. Because palm‑oil is an ingredient in countless foods, cosmetics and biofuels, any shortfall can ripple through U.S. grocery shelves.

Developing‑country vulnerability

Christopher Barrett, a food‑and‑agricultural economics professor at Cornell University, notes that developing nations have limited ability to absorb fertilizer shortages, poor maize harvests and other climate‑related shocks. Those countries may see the sharpest price spikes, which can then feed back into global commodity markets.

What experts say about U.S. consumers

Maximo Torero, chief economist at the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, warns that global food prices are already climbing due to geopolitical tensions, trade barriers and now El Niño. He expects the climate event to add further pressure, though the exact magnitude will depend on the severity of the El Niño and policy responses.

Nelson Villoria, an agricultural economist at Kansas State University, explains that tropical commodities such as palm‑oil, coconut‑oil, coffee and fishmeal typically see the largest price increases, and those higher costs can linger for up to a year after the El Niño subsides.

Potential regional effects

In Africa, especially eastern and southern regions, El Niño‑driven floods and droughts could trigger localized food‑supply crises. In India, a drier monsoon may cut rice yields, prompting the government to limit exports and push global rice prices higher. While the United States is unlikely to face food shortages, consumers should expect higher prices on coffee, chocolate and products containing palm‑oil throughout the remainder of 2026 and into 2027.

What the administration is doing

The Trump administration emphasizes that trade can act as a “release valve” for climate‑related supply shocks. By keeping trade channels open, the United States hopes to mitigate price spikes and ensure that essential goods remain affordable for American families.

Original reporting: KEYT (Ventura/Santa Barbara) — read the source article.