Atlantic hurricane season has started quietly, with El Niño potentially playing a role. Warmer-than-average water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and shifts in upper atmosphere weather patterns are influencing global weather.

El Niño’s Impact on Hurricane Season

El Niño was officially declared in June and could become a record-breaking Super El Niño later this year. Its effects are already being felt, with storm-killing wind shear affecting the Caribbean Sea and western Atlantic Ocean. This wind shear can tear apart tropical systems or prevent them from forming.

According to Michael Lowry, a Miami-based hurricane expert, the number one indicator of El Niño is wind shear. Lowry noted that wind shear over the Caribbean had its second-highest start to July since satellite records began in 1979.

Implications for Hurricane Season

The current wind shear behavior is consistent with what’s expected from El Niño, according to Matthew Rosencrans, a meteorologist with NOAA. However, the link between El Niño and wind shear won’t be confirmed until after hurricane season ends in November.

Other experts, such as Levi Silvers, a research scientist and co-author of Colorado State University’s hurricane season forecasts, agree that El Niño is likely causing the wind shear. Silvers stated that all the pieces are fitting together in a way that makes sense and is consistent with the science.

The strong statistical relationship between wind shear in the Caribbean and western tropical Atlantic in July and a less active peak hurricane season suggests that this season may be quieter than normal. However, threats can still develop closer to home, in the Gulf or along the southeastern coast.

Original reporting: El Paso News (HLL/CB) — read the source article.