El Niño, a periodic weather pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean, has officially begun and is forecast to intensify into a very strong or ‘Super’ El Niño. This could lead to major shifts in global weather patterns and an even hotter climate, according to a new report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Impacts on Global Weather

The NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is giving this El Niño a 63% chance of becoming a ‘very strong’ event, which could be one of the ‘largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950.’ El Niño involves the transfer of a large amount of heat energy from the ocean to the atmosphere, which also has implications for the global climate, boosting global average surface temperatures.

El Niño can lead to widespread marine heat waves and coral bleaching, giving corals’ sensitivity to higher ocean temperatures. The marine heat waves themselves can also influence regional weather patterns. In the US, its impacts are most evident during the winter months, with warmer-than-average conditions typically seen from the northern US to western Canada and Alaska.

Regional Effects

Some regions, like Australia and Indonesia, are prone to drought and heat waves during El Niños, which can lead to wildfires and water supply concerns. In summer, monsoon rain is reduced in India and southeast Asia, and there are signs of this already starting to occur. Reduced precipitation in these areas can exacerbate summer heat extremes.

The Caribbean also often sees drought during El Niño. Warm and dry winters are typical in parts of southern and eastern Asia. Drought conditions could grow in Southeast Africa during the Southern Hemisphere summer from December to February. Meanwhile, areas closer to the Horn of Africa could see flooding rains during the October to January period.

Original reporting: KEYT (Ventura/Santa Barbara) — read the source article.