AccuWeather meteorologists are forecasting a quieter end to the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season as a strengthening El Niño pattern continues to take hold in the Pacific Ocean. Updated projections call for 8 to 14 named storms, 4 to 7 hurricanes, and 2 to 4 major hurricanes reaching Category 3 or higher.
Impact on the United States
Forecasters expect between three and five direct impacts on the United States before the season concludes on Nov. 30. Meteorologists now place the probability of El Niño evolving into a “super El Niño” by the end of the season at more than 90 percent.
The stronger El Niño becomes, the greater the likelihood of a less active end to the season, according to Alex DaSilva, lead hurricane expert at AccuWeather. Despite the potential for a quieter late season, forecasters emphasize that a less active year can still produce dangerous landfalls.
Regions currently designated with a higher-than-average risk include the northern and eastern Gulf Coast, the Carolinas, and the northeastern Caribbean. A central concern for meteorologists is exceptionally warm ocean water near the U.S. coastline, which allows weak systems to intensify quickly right before reaching land, giving coastal residents very little time to prepare.
Original reporting: Tampa Free Press — read the source article.
