Michigan voters are seeing a clear Democratic edge in two of the state’s most closely watched contests as Election Day draws near. The latest average of the five most recent polls compiled by 270toWin puts Democrat Abdul El‑Sayed at 48.4% against Republican Mike Rogers’ 44.4% in the U.S. Senate race. In the governor’s race, Democrat Jocelyn Benson leads Republican U.S. Rep. John James 49.4% to 42.2%.
Senate race shifts in favor of Democrats
The Senate poll reflects a notable swing since the August 4 primary, when Rogers held a modest advantage. Over the ensuing months the gap has widened in El‑Sayed’s favor, indicating growing support for the Democratic challenger. El‑Sayed, who faced criticism from some Republican leaders and a few Jewish community figures over his association with political streamer Hasan Piker, has secured the backing of former President Barack Obama, who will join him and Benson on the campaign trail on Oct. 24.
Rogers, the former U.S. Rep who lost narrowly to Democrat Elissa Slotkin in 2024, is running again with the endorsement of President Donald Trump. While the impact of Trump’s support remains uncertain, the endorsement underscores the administration’s continued commitment to Republican candidates in key battleground states.
Governor’s race favors the Democratic incumbent
Jocelyn Benson, Michigan’s Secretary of State since 2018, enjoys a substantial lead over James. Benson’s record includes vocal opposition to the Trump administration’s election policies and a history of confronting the Southern Poverty Law Center, actions that have drawn criticism from state Republicans. Nonetheless, her platform and name recognition have kept her ahead in the polls.
John James, a veteran and businessman, runs on a “Freedom Agenda” that emphasizes ethics reform, transparency, and a parents’ bill of rights. He, too, has received President Trump’s endorsement, reflecting the administration’s focus on promoting Republican alternatives in the state.
What the numbers mean for the 120th Congress
Michigan’s two Senate seats are part of the 33 up for regular election in 2026, a cycle that will determine control of the 120th Congress. Democrats currently hold 13 of the contested seats, while Republicans hold 22. Betting markets give El‑Sayed a 74% chance of winning, and Benson a 93% chance of securing the governor’s office.
With 29 days left until Election Day, Michigan remains a pivotal battleground. Voters who prioritize strong families, faith‑based values, and individual liberty may find the Democratic leads encouraging, while Republican supporters can look to President Trump’s endorsements as a rallying point for the upcoming contests.
Original reporting: KTBS 3 (Shreveport) — read the source article.
