The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are set for Sept. 27 in Los Angeles, with fans currently able to cast up to ten votes per category each day. While the ceremony traditionally relies on fan voting, a recent analysis by music‑analytics platform Viberate offers a data‑driven glimpse of who might win if performance metrics alone decided the outcomes.
How the rankings were calculated
Viberate built separate 0‑to‑100 scores for each of the three major categories—Artist of the Year, Song of the Year and Best New Artist—using data available through Aug. 30, 2026. The methodology combined 12‑month Spotify streams, YouTube views and radio airplay with current audience size, recent growth and playlist exposure. For Best New Artist, where historic data is limited, the model weighted current‑footprint metrics (Spotify, YouTube, TikTok, Instagram) at 60 % and playlist reach at 40 %.
Artist of the Year: Taylor Swift leads
Taylor Swift topped the Artist of the Year ranking with a score of 77.7, followed by Bruno Mars at 68.5 and Ariana Grande at 66.2. Swift’s advantage stemmed from her massive 12‑month consumption: roughly 19.4 billion Spotify streams, 3.6 billion YouTube views and 6.4 million radio spins during the measurement period. Although Grande showed stronger recent audience growth—adding about 6.1 million monthly listeners on Spotify and 1.8 million TikTok followers—Swift’s sustained year‑long performance gave her a larger overall base.
Song of the Year: “Golden” takes the lead
In the Song of the Year category, the track “Golden” (from the movie “KPop Demon Hunters”) by HUNTR/X: EJAE, Audrey Nuna and REI AMI earned the highest score of 84.5. It outpaced Olivia Dean’s “Man I Need” (79.9) and Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas” (79.6). “Golden” accumulated about 1.46 billion Spotify streams, 1.57 billion YouTube views and 1.1 million radio spins over the 12‑month window. While “Man I Need” excelled in Spotify discovery and playlist reach, and “Choosin’ Texas” led recent‑momentum metrics, “Golden” performed strongly across multiple channels, securing the top spot in the data‑only model.
Best New Artist: CORTIS edges Malcolm Todd
The Best New Artist race was the tightest. CORTIS scored 76.85, just 0.28 points ahead of Malcolm Todd’s 76.57, with Sienna Spiro in third at 73.74. CORTIS boasted the largest cross‑platform audience footprint—approximately 5.4 million Spotify followers, 6.7 million YouTube subscribers, 16.9 million TikTok followers and 15.7 million Instagram followers as of Aug. 30. Todd, however, led several Spotify metrics, including the highest monthly listener count at about 39.5 million and an average playlist reach of roughly 175.5 million during the final measurement window. The model’s 60 % weighting toward current audience and 40 % toward discovery gave CORTIS a narrow advantage.
What this means for the VMAs
According to Viberate’s data‑driven models, Taylor Swift would be the frontrunner for Artist of the Year, “Golden” would claim Song of the Year, and CORTIS would narrowly beat Malcolm Todd for Best New Artist. The official awards will still be decided by fan votes, and voting remains open ahead of the Sept. 27 ceremony, which will air on CBS and MTV and stream on Paramount+.
This analysis highlights how different metrics—sustained streaming, broad song consumption and cross‑platform audience reach—can shape outcomes when the numbers speak louder than the vote.
Original reporting: KTBS 3 (Shreveport) — read the source article.
