A drop in oil prices after a fragile U.S.-Iran truce has helped ease immediate inflationary pressure in many emerging markets, but cheaper oil alone will not defuse the threat of civil unrest as the damage to household finances has already been done, analysts say.
Civil Unrest on the Rise
Global civil unrest hit a six-year high in the second quarter of 2026, according to UK-based global risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft. Countries from Kenya to Indonesia and Bolivia have seen protests in recent weeks linked to energy price hikes and the rising cost of living.
Oil prices have fallen toward pre-conflict levels, with Brent nearing $70 a barrel after an accord last week between Washington and Tehran reopened shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. However, months of elevated energy costs have already taken their toll, and oil prices remain volatile.
Analysts warn that inflationary pressure from the disruption to shipping and damage to energy infrastructure will continue well into the second half of 2026. Iraq has seen the sharpest proportional rise in protest activity among emerging markets over the past year, followed by Turkey.
India, already the country with the highest risk of protests, has also seen a marked increase in demonstrations since the second quarter of last year. Several major emerging markets have worsened in the past 12 months, with Brazil’s risk score deteriorating significantly, and Iran’s score worsening sharply over the same period.
Difficult Choices for Governments
Not all governments face the same choices. Countries with relatively stronger fiscal buffers, such as Indonesia and the Philippines, can absorb part of the shock through subsidies. Those with weaker fiscal positions face a dilemma: pass higher prices on to households and risk unrest, or absorb the cost and slow fiscal consolidation.
Tighter public finances contribute to rising inequality and poverty, both of which are important drivers of risk. A small group of emerging economies, including Bangladesh, Pakistan, Kenya, and Nigeria, have seen slight improvements in their level of civil unrest risk over the past year, but all remain firmly in high-risk territory.
Looking ahead, Verisk Maplecroft flags India, Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, and Turkey among those most at risk. Other analysts warn that early signs of protests around fuel are a foreshadowing for the rest of the continent.
Original reporting: Appleton, WI News Feed (HLL/CB) — read the source article.
