São Paulo – A recent CNT/MDA poll released Saturday shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro shrinking as Brazil heads toward the first‑round presidential vote on Sunday.

First‑round numbers

According to the poll, Lula would receive 43.1% of voter support in a first‑round scenario, while Bolsonaro would garner 38%. The remaining candidates would split the rest of the vote: Augusto Cury at 3.2%, Ronaldo Caiado at 3%, and Renan Santos at 1.5%.

Comparison with previous poll

The latest figures contrast with a September 15 poll that placed Lula at 40.5% and Bolsonaro at 30.4%, with Cury at 6%, Caiado at 3% and Santos at 2.7%.

Valid‑vote projection

When the poll excludes respondents who said they would cast a blank or void ballot, Lula’s support rises to 47.8% and Bolsonaro’s to 42.1%.

Runoff outlook

If no candidate reaches the 50% threshold in the first round, a runoff is scheduled for October 25. In a likely runoff, the poll projects Lula at 47.3% and Bolsonaro at 43.1%.

For comparison, the previous survey showed Lula leading Bolsonaro 47.3% to 40% in a runoff scenario.

Methodology

The poll was conducted by MDA, surveying 2,007 people between September 30 and October 2. The margin of error is reported at 2.2 percentage points.

These numbers suggest a tightening race as Brazil approaches its first‑round vote, with both major candidates positioned to advance to a runoff if no clear majority emerges.

Original reporting: Appleton, WI News Feed (HLL/CB) — read the source article.