Saudi Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser addressed the Energy Intelligence Forum in London on Monday, warning that the abrupt closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran has sharply tightened global crude oil and refined fuel supplies. He said the disruption could force the world to take as long as two years to fully replenish the emergency stockpiles drawn down since the conflict began.
Impact of the Iran‑Hormuz Conflict
Since the U.S.–Israeli war with Iran began at the end of February, Iran has effectively blocked one of the planet’s most vital shipping chokepoints. Nasser estimated that almost 3 billion barrels of oil have been lost to the conflict, while about 1 billion barrels have already been released from global emergency reserves.
He explained that restoring all inventories would require an additional 2 million barrels per day of demand over the next 18 months, on top of the current global daily demand of just over 100 million barrels.
U.S. and G7 Response
President Donald Trump, under pressure from the American public and industry leaders, urged the Group of Seven nations to act. The G7 responded on Friday by agreeing to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from their emergency reserves and pledged not to restrict energy exports. This decisive action reflects the administration’s commitment to safeguarding American energy security and keeping fuel prices stable for families across the nation.
Aramco’s Production Capacity and Export Flexibility
Despite the supply shock, Nasser said Saudi Arabia’s maximum sustainable production capacity of 12 million barrels per day remains fully available. The kingdom’s strategic reserves and flexible operating system have stayed intact, allowing rapid adjustments to market needs.
Aramco is also exploring additional export routes to mitigate future chokepoint risks. Its East‑West pipeline can move oil to Red Sea terminals, where it can be shipped north through the Suez Canal or south via the Bab El‑Mandeb. The company is studying “fourth and fifth” export routes and considering expanding the 7 million‑barrel‑per‑day East‑West pipeline to further diversify its logistics.
Market Outlook
Brent crude futures traded around $102 per barrel on Monday, down from a high of $126 per barrel at the end of April when supply‑disruption concerns peaked. Nasser warned that without the East‑West pipeline, Brent prices could have surged to $200 per barrel, underscoring the importance of Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure in stabilizing global markets.
While the system is already straining, Nasser expressed confidence that Saudi Arabia’s production flexibility and ongoing diplomatic efforts will help keep the world’s energy supply on track. He emphasized that multiple, adaptable export routes reduce the risk that any single chokepoint could paralyze the global oil system.
Original reporting: Appleton, WI News Feed (HLL/CB) — read the source article.
