Alaska voters have given Democratic former Representative Mary Peltola a clear edge over Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan in the state’s June primary. With roughly 80% of ballots counted, Peltola holds 48.1% of the vote while Sullivan trails at 42.7%.
Ranked‑choice system and early returns
Alaska’s unique all‑party primary and ranked‑choice voting format produced a direct head‑to‑head matchup between the two Senate candidates, with no serious third‑party challengers. The remaining votes are largely advance ballots, which have so far favored Peltola, suggesting she could approach or surpass the 50% mark as counting finishes.
What the numbers mean for the race
While primary results are not definitive predictors of general‑election outcomes, the early lead is notable for a sitting senator. Sullivan’s sub‑43% showing is unusually low for an incumbent, and the Republican share of the Senate race—about 45.7% at present—is below the Republican percentages seen in recent Alaska House and gubernatorial primaries.
Historically, Alaska’s primary electorate can differ from the November voter pool. In 2024, Peltola won 51% of the primary for her House seat but lost the general election. Conversely, in 2022 Democrats outperformed their primary share on Election Day. The higher turnout this year—estimated at around 160,000 votes, roughly 60% of the 2022 midterm total—suggests a primary electorate more similar to the general electorate than in 2024.
Implications for Senate control
The Alaska race is one of several key contests that could determine whether Democrats secure a Senate majority. Analysts note that winning states carried by former President Donald Trump in 2024, such as Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, will be crucial. Early voting patterns in Alaska now favor the Democratic side, but the final outcome will depend on the remaining ballots and the November electorate.
Both campaigns will continue to court undecided voters, and the ranked‑choice system could still shift the final tally if supporters of eliminated candidates rank one of the two front‑runners higher. For now, the primary results provide a snapshot of current voter sentiment in a pivotal state.
Original reporting: El Paso News (HLL/CB) — read the source article.
