Africa is facing a potential $10-$20 billion economic hit due to an impending ‘super’ El Niño, according to the African Development Bank’s top climate expert. The El Niño weather pattern is expected to drive severe droughts, flooding, and storms in Africa, leading to food and water insecurity, and mass migration from hard-hit areas.

Economic Impact

The AfDB’s director for climate change and green growth, Anthony Nyong, estimates that the economic loss could be around 1% to 2% of the affected countries’ GDP. This would be a significant blow to the continent, which is already struggling with climate-related disasters.

The El Niño event could also undermine government finances and banking sectors, as disasters damage infrastructure and leave cash-strapped countries struggling to repay loans. Nyong warned that the ‘climate finance trap’ is a major concern, where governments lack the resources to respond to crises and are forced to raid health, education, or infrastructure budgets to meet the costs.

Humanitarian Crisis

The humanitarian pressures from the El Niño event could be severe, with the potential for mass migration from affected areas. The price of maize, a key food staple in many African countries, is expected to double, leading to food insecurity and social unrest. Nyong identified several countries, including Sudan, South Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Mali, Burundi, and Nigeria, as being particularly vulnerable to the impacts of El Niño.

The AfDB is planning to ramp up its response to the El Niño event, with a bank-wide seminar in September to assess the potential impact on its planned and existing investments. The bank is also working with countries to tap into additional multilateral support, such as the Green Climate Fund, to help them manage the impacts of El Niño.

Original reporting: Appleton, WI News Feed (HLL/CB) — read the source article.