As the 2026 World Cup approaches, Goldman Sachs has released its predictions for the tournament’s outcome, highlighting Spain as the favorite to claim the title. This comes after an extensive analysis of nearly 20,000 matches since 1978, utilizing the Elo rating system to assess team performance.

Spain’s Strong Position

Spain, which last won the World Cup in 2010, is given a 26% probability of winning this year. The team is bolstered by strong players, including 18-year-old Lamine Yamal, who is expected to lead the squad despite concerns over a recent hamstring injury. Spain’s coach, Luis De la Fuente, expressed enthusiasm about the team’s prospects as they prepare for their opening match on June 15.

Goldman Sachs’ model attributes Spain’s favorable odds to its high Elo ranking, scoring talent, and positive momentum entering the tournament. This prediction aligns with other forecasts, such as those from BetMGM Sportsbook, which also lists Spain as a top contender.

Other Contenders

Following Spain, France is given a 19% chance of winning, with Argentina at 14%, Brazil at 8%, and England at 5%. Argentina faces the challenge of overcoming the so-called ‘World Cup curse,’ where reigning champions often underperform in subsequent tournaments.

Goldman Sachs acknowledges the inherent unpredictability of soccer, noting that while their model aligns closely with bookmakers’ odds, it remains limited in its statistical power. Despite past attempts to predict World Cup outcomes, the firm has yet to achieve consistent accuracy.

The 2026 World Cup marks a historic expansion, featuring 48 nations and a record 1,248 players. This diverse lineup spans a wide range of ages, with more than 25 years separating the oldest and youngest participants.

Original reporting: THV11 Little Rock — read the source article.