Statewide polling released Tuesday shows Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan holding a narrow lead over Republican challenger Michele Tafoya in the 2026 U.S. Senate race. The average of the four most recent surveys compiled by 270toWin gives Flanagan 44.8% support compared with Tafoya’s 43.3%.
Context of the race
Flanagan, a Democrat, has served alongside Gov. Tim Walz since 2018 and is seeking to move from the lieutenant‑governor’s office to the Senate. Tafoya, a well‑known sports broadcaster, positions herself as a political outsider, noting that no Republican has won a Minnesota Senate seat since 2002.
Both candidates are campaigning as absentee ballots begin to be cast for the November 2026 general election, which includes the entire state legislature, the governor’s race, and a statewide ballot measure.
Campaign messages
Tafoya has criticized Flanagan’s record, saying, “Minnesotans are rejecting Peggy Flanagan’s record of failure – gang violence, rampant fraud, declining test scores – all on her watch as lieutenant governor. It’s time for an outsider.” She also accused Flanagan of standing with Gov. Walz during years she describes as a “free‑fall in academic performance, rising crime, and billions in taxpayer dollars lost to fraud.”
Flanagan responded by highlighting her support for policies that align with President Donald Trump’s agenda, calling Tafoya a “yes vote” for the President if elected. “We have a choice, Minnesota,” Flanagan said. “Do you want a senator who will work for you to lower costs, end the illegal war in Iran, and hold ICE accountable? Or do you want another senator for Trump?”
Health‑care policy also features prominently. Flanagan warned that Tafoya intends to “protect” what she called Trump’s “big, ugly bill” and pledged to fight to restore Medicaid and SNAP cuts, programs Flanagan says saved her life as a child.
Broader electoral picture
The Cook Political Report rates the Minnesota Senate contest as “likely Democrat,” noting its potential to influence the balance of power in the 120th Congress. Of the 100 Senate seats, 33 are up for regular election in 2026, with Democrats currently defending 13 of those seats and Republicans defending 22.
In the concurrent gubernatorial race, Democrat U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar leads Republican state House Speaker Lisa Demuth by two to seven points in recent polling, indicating a generally favorable environment for Democratic candidates in statewide contests.
What voters should watch
As absentee voting continues, Minnesotans should monitor how each campaign addresses key concerns: public‑safety funding, election‑integrity reforms, and the future of federal assistance programs. Both candidates have framed the race around accountability – Tafoya emphasizing outsider status and Flanagan emphasizing experience and policy continuity.
Voters can find the latest polling data on the 270toWin website and should stay tuned for upcoming debates and town‑hall meetings that will further clarify each candidate’s positions.
Original reporting: KTBS 3 (Shreveport) — read the source article.
