Oil markets showed little movement in early Asian trading on Thursday, reflecting a balance between optimism over Gulf supply and uncertainty surrounding U.S.–Iran diplomatic efforts. Brent crude futures edged up 12 cents, or 0.1%, to $98.15 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped 7 cents, also a 0.1% decline, to $90.35.
Recent price trends
Both benchmarks had risen about $1 a barrel on Wednesday, extending September’s strong performance. Brent posted a roughly 14% gain for the month, its best monthly rise since July, while WTI advanced about 5% over the same period.
Supply factors and Gulf exports
Analyst Toshitaka Tazawa of Fujitomi Securities noted that buying pressure persisted despite lingering supply concerns, but selling pressure grew as Middle Eastern oil exports began to recover. He highlighted Saudi Arabia’s restart of crude shipments from the Red Sea port of Yanbu as a key driver of the market’s steadiness.
Goldman Sachs estimated that Gulf oil exports, including “dark exports” from vessels with turned‑off transponders, have returned to an average of 23.3 million barrels per day over the past week—matching the 2025 average. The firm said exports doubled in September, suggesting a notable rebound in regional supply.
U.S.–Iran diplomatic backdrop
Qatar expressed hope that shuttle diplomacy between Tehran and Washington could produce a breakthrough in the stalled negotiations. However, President Trump publicly denied recent reports that he was prepared to offer sanctions relief or release frozen Iranian funds in exchange for concrete steps on Iran’s nuclear program. The administration’s clarification came after Axios and CNN cited unnamed U.S. officials suggesting a willingness to negotiate.
Inventory data and OPEC+ outlook
U.S. crude inventories rose by 922,000 barrels to 427.3 million barrels for the week ending September 25, according to the Energy Information Administration. This increase contrasted with analysts’ expectations for a draw of 264,000 barrels, though fuel inventories fell sharply amid strong seasonal and global demand.
Two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters that OPEC+ producers are likely to keep their output targets unchanged for the upcoming November meeting, signaling continued coordination among the oil‑producing nations.
Market outlook
Tazawa warned that a new catalyst—such as measurable progress in the peace talks—will be needed for WTI to break below the immediate support level of $88 a barrel. Until then, traders appear poised to watch both geopolitical developments and Gulf supply data for clues on future price direction.
Overall, the market’s near‑flat performance underscores a delicate balance: steady demand, a recovering Gulf supply base, and a diplomatic environment that remains uncertain.
Original reporting: Appleton, WI News Feed (HLL/CB) — read the source article.
