Recent findings from a study in the journal Frontiers in Space Technologies suggest that the United States’ ambitious plans for a large lunar city may need to be scaled back. Astronomer Martin Elvis of the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory and space‑sustainability expert Jonathan McDowell examined how much water is actually available in the Moon’s permanently shadowed craters and what that means for long‑term habitation.

Water limits a massive Moon city

Elvis and McDowell note that earlier estimates of up to a billion tons of ice – enough to fill Manhattan’s Central Park to a depth of about 400 feet – are likely optimistic. Even using that high figure, a settlement of one million people would run out of water in roughly two years if no recycling were employed. With the International Space Station’s 98 % water‑recovery rate, the same population could survive about a century, which the researchers still consider insufficient given the investment required.

Smaller settlements are more realistic

The authors argue that a “Moon Village” of around 1,000 residents, comparable to Antarctica’s winter‑over crews, could use water more freely. Populations of 100,000 would need to begin conserving water carefully, and any larger community would face severe constraints.

Possible ways to extend water supplies

Improved recycling technologies, vertical farming, and reduced meat consumption could lower water demand. The study also mentions importing water from asteroids as a speculative option, though such logistics remain uncertain.

Power challenges but not insurmountable

Generating sufficient electricity for a million‑person lunar city would be demanding. The researchers found that solar power could meet the needs of a smaller settlement, while a larger population would likely require nuclear reactors. Nonetheless, power availability is not seen as a deal‑breaker.

Call for international cooperation

Elvis emphasizes that cooperation between the United States, China, and other Artemis partners is essential to manage the Moon’s limited water resources responsibly. Without coordinated effort, the researchers warn of a “free‑for‑all” that could jeopardize sustainable development.

While the study does not aim to dampen enthusiasm for lunar exploration, it provides a reality check that could guide future policy and engineering decisions as NASA, SpaceX, and other stakeholders move toward establishing a permanent human presence on the Moon.

Original reporting: Brookhaven News – ABC7 New York — read the source article.