London – The narrow Bab al‑Mandeb waterway, the vital chokepoint between Yemen and Djibouti, is facing renewed danger as Iran‑backed Houthi rebels tighten their grip on the passage. In the past 48 hours the Houthis have taken control of the port city of Mocha and, according to Yemeni government sources, the strategic Perim Island that sits in the middle of the strait.
Impact on Global Oil Flow
The strait has become an essential artery for global trade, especially since the United States‑Iran conflict effectively closed the nearby Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia has relied heavily on Bab al‑Mandeb to export crude, with roughly 3 million barrels per day moving through the passage at its peak, according to energy‑market analyst Richard Bronze of Energy Aspects.
Bronze says Saudi crude flows through the strait collapsed to about 400,000 barrels per day in August and have fallen further as the Houthi threat persists. With fewer ships able to use the shortcut, many cargoes are forced onto a far longer route that circles Africa, adds roughly a month of transit time, and drives up freight costs.
Oil Prices Surge
The disruption sent oil benchmarks soaring on Thursday. Brent crude rose more than 7 % to $108 a barrel, while the U.S. WTI benchmark climbed to $103 a barrel – the highest levels since May. Senior crude analyst Johannes Rauball of Kpler linked the price jump to a combination of Red Sea shipping disruptions, Saudi production cuts, and Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.
“With no quick resolution in sight and these disruptions set to persist, refiners are increasingly being pushed to secure additional crude, which is pushing crude prices higher,” Rauball told CNN.
Broader Economic Consequences
Higher oil prices translate into higher diesel costs, a key fuel for trucks, tractors, freight trains and other commercial vehicles. In the United States, diesel prices have risen more than 50 % since the war began, topping $6 a gallon for the first time, according to the American Automobile Association.
Energy costs are a major driver of inflation, and the recent surge raises the specter of further interest‑rate hikes that could increase borrowing costs for families and businesses across the country.
Shipping Adjustments
Shipping firms have long practiced avoidance of the Red Sea route, but the intensity of Houthi attacks has forced many to adopt the longer, costlier path. Freight‑data firm Xeneta estimates that vessel transits through Bab al‑Mandeb have fallen between 60 % and 70 % since late 2023, with a further 46 % drop in the days following the latest flare‑up.
Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, cautioned that while transits are unlikely to fall to zero, every ship that passes through the strait now represents a potential target.
Looking Ahead
The situation underscores the strategic importance of secure maritime routes for the global economy. As the United States and its allies monitor the developments, the continued instability in the Bab al‑Mandeb could keep oil markets volatile and sustain pressure on consumer prices worldwide.
Original reporting: El Paso News (HLL/CB) — read the source article.
