On Sunday, residents of Saxony‑Anhalt will cast ballots in a pivotal state election that could reshape Germany’s post‑war political landscape. The Alternative for Germany (AfD), led by 35‑year‑old Ulrich Siegmund, is polling just over 40 % and hopes to achieve an outright majority, a feat that would allow the party to govern without needing a coalition partner.
Local stakes and national implications
The race is being watched closely as a barometer for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government, which has tried to blunt the AfD’s appeal by tightening migration and security policies. Recent surveys show the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) trailing far behind at about 23 %.
Germany’s proportional representation system makes an absolute majority difficult to attain, but if the AfD reaches the 5 % threshold on its own, it could bypass the longstanding “firewall” that mainstream parties have used to keep the far‑right out of power.
What a victory would mean
Should the AfD secure a majority, it would become the first far‑right party to run a state government since 1945, giving it a platform to implement its agenda on immigration, law‑and‑order, and cultural issues. Siegmund told a rally in Magdeburg, the state capital, that the movement’s momentum “can no longer be stopped.”
Even without a majority, the AfD could become a kingmaker in coalition talks, especially if smaller parties fail to clear the 5 % hurdle. The CDU‑led administration under incumbent premier Sven Schulze remains the most likely alternative, though any coalition would depend on which parties qualify for parliament.
Potential coalition scenarios
If the AfD falls short, the CDU may seek a coalition with the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Greens, though the SPD is currently polling under 10 %. The Free Democratic Party (FDP), a traditional CDU partner, is also projected to miss the threshold. The far‑left BSW, the only party that has not ruled out working with the AfD, is likewise expected to fall short.
One possible outcome is a minority CDU government that would rely on passive tolerance from the Left Party, a model previously used in neighboring Thuringia.
When results will be known
Initial vote counts are expected around 6 p.m. (1600 GMT) on Sunday, shortly after polls close. The outcome will not only determine the next state premier but also signal the health of the AfD’s broader national ambitions ahead of the 2029 federal election.
Original reporting: Appleton, WI News Feed (HLL/CB) — read the source article.
