U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds holds a 16-point lead in Florida’s Republican gubernatorial primary, but new polling data indicates the contest has consolidated into a two-man race between Donalds and Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins.

Polling Data

According to a survey memorandum released July 30, 2026, by national pollster David Wolfson, Donalds leads the field with 46% support among likely primary voters, followed by Collins at 30%. Together, the two candidates command nearly 80% of overall voter support. Trailing the frontrunners are James Fishback at 9.8% and former Florida House Speaker Paul Renner at 5.9%.

The poll indicates that Donalds’ support held steady throughout July, while Collins experienced consistent growth over the same period.

Among the remaining undecided voters, 40% lean toward Collins compared to 30% for Donalds, giving the lieutenant governor a 10-point advantage with persuadable primary voters heading into August.

“Notably, undecided voters break for Collins more than any other candidate, with Collins taking 40% of that pool,” said Ted Veerman, campaign manager for Collins. “Lieutenant Governor Collins is surging at the exact right moment and closing the gap rapidly between him and Donalds. Every other candidate in this race is an afterthought.”

Voter Fluidity

The survey findings also show that two-thirds of likely Republican primary voters remain open to considering another candidate upon learning new information. Aiming to leverage this voter fluidity, the Collins campaign launched a new advertisement directly criticizing Donalds and challenging his fitness to lead Florida.

The survey interviewed 988 likely Florida Republican primary voters from July 28 to July 29 using an MMS text-to-web methodology.

Original reporting: Tampa Free Press — read the source article.