China’s economy likely slowed in the second quarter after a solid start to the year, as weak domestic demand offset the boost from resilient exports during a global oil shock, fueling market expectations for fresh policy stimulus.
Economic Slowdown
Gross domestic product is forecast to have grown 4.5% year-on-year in April-June, cooling from 5.0% in the first quarter, a Reuters poll of 54 economists showed.
China’s exports, due for release on Tuesday, likely grew at a slightly slower but still-solid pace in June, as firms accelerated shipments to the U.S. ahead of possible new tariffs, rode the AI boom, and competed aggressively on prices to win over cost-conscious consumers.
Stimulus Expectations
Analysts expect China to lean on fiscal policy to cushion any further slowdown, as the central bank has limited room for high-profile easing even after the retreat in oil prices.
The government is expected to speed up fiscal spending after a second-quarter slowdown that followed front-loaded support early in the year. Beijing has set a budget deficit of around 4% of GDP for 2026 and lined up heavy bond issuance to shore up growth.
Original reporting: Appleton, WI News Feed (HLL/CB) — read the source article.
