Thursday marks the climatological peak of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, yet the basin remains unusually quiet. Only five named storms have developed so far and not a single one has reached hurricane strength. If the trend continues, the season will set a new satellite‑era record for the latest formation of the first hurricane, surpassing the previous benchmark of September 11 set in 2002 and 2013.
Accumulated Cyclone Energy remains far below average
The season’s Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) – a metric that combines storm duration and intensity – stands at just 4.4. That represents roughly 7 % of the typical ACE value for mid‑September, when the average season would have accumulated about 58.2 points. The low ACE underscores how short‑lived and weak the current systems have been.
Atmospheric conditions suppress development
Repeated bursts of dry Saharan air and persistently strong wind shear have hampered tropical organization. Even when disturbances have managed to form, they have usually dissipated within a day or two as hostile environmental factors took hold.
Contrast with recent active seasons
For perspective, the 2024 season had already produced six named storms and four hurricanes by this point, including a Category 5 hurricane, Beryl. By the end of that year the basin recorded 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes. In 2020, 17 storms and six hurricanes were already in the books by September 10.
Forecasts still call for more activity
Despite the current lull, forecasters are not ruling out a busier finish. Colorado State University projects nine named storms, four hurricanes and one major hurricane for the full season. NOAA’s latest outlook calls for 7‑13 named storms, 2‑6 hurricanes and up to two major hurricanes, with most activity expected in August, September and October. NOAA classifies a below‑normal season as the most likely outcome, but the exact degree of shortfall remains to be seen.
Potential impact on South Florida
September is traditionally the most active month for Atlantic hurricanes, and South Florida historically bears the brunt of landfalling storms. While the season’s early quietness offers a reprieve, residents should remain prepared for the possibility of storms developing later in the month through October.
El Niño’s role
The muted pattern aligns with a very strong El Niño, which was well‑forecast earlier in the year. El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane formation by enhancing wind shear and stabilizing the atmosphere.
The official Atlantic hurricane season will run through November 30, giving the atmosphere ample time to either maintain its current restraint or to shift toward a more active phase as the season progresses.
Original reporting: NBC6 Miami — read the source article.
