The federal weather service released its official winter outlook Thursday, warning that the 2026‑27 season will be generally wetter and milder across the United States. The forecast attributes the shift to a developing El Niño, a natural but temporary warming of the central Pacific Ocean that tends to steer moisture eastward while raising temperatures.
El Niño’s Expected Impacts
El Niño typically produces predictable regional patterns. This year’s event is projected to bring more rain and higher temperatures to the lower 48 states, helping to alleviate lingering drought conditions in the West. However, the same pattern also means that many northern locales – the Northeast, Great Lakes region, Upper Midwest and the Northern Rockies – are likely to receive less snow than average.
Snow Outlook for the North
Both NOAA and private firms such as AccuWeather expect below‑normal snowfall in the northern tier. AccuWeather’s long‑range model shows Chicago, Boston, New York and Philadelphia each receiving roughly half or less of their typical winter snow totals. Salt Lake City is the only major metro area where AccuWeather predicts above‑normal snow accumulation.
Temperature and Rainfall Forecast
Forecasters say 41 of the 48 contiguous states are on track for warmer‑than‑normal conditions, with no areas projected to be cooler. States such as Florida, Louisiana, southern Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi are expected to remain near normal. Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, southern California, Nevada, Wyoming, western Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska each have roughly equal chances of being warm, cold or normal.
Potential Hazards
While a strong polar vortex is less likely this winter, meteorologists caution that it could still occur. National Weather Service Director Ken Graham noted that a single major storm could still bring significant snow to the East Coast in late January or February. The Weather Channel’s Mike Bettes warned that California may face numerous atmospheric rivers – narrow bands of intense moisture – capable of producing flooding and landslides.
In addition, the Southeast, including Florida, should stay alert for an elevated tornado risk during the winter and early spring months, a pattern often linked to El Niño’s influence on jet‑stream dynamics.
Regional Drought Relief
NOAA expects drought conditions to improve or end across western Oregon, western Washington, the Southwest, the central and southern Rockies, the southern Great Plains, the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the East. The agency’s outlook highlights that while some areas will see more rain, others – such as parts of Montana, Oregon, Idaho, Wisconsin and Michigan – may remain drier than normal.
What Residents Can Do
Local officials and emergency managers are urged to prepare for the increased precipitation in vulnerable regions, especially where flooding and landslides are a concern. Residents in the northern snow‑prone states should monitor local forecasts for occasional snowstorms, even as overall snowfall totals remain below average.
Overall, the combination of a strong El Niño and improved forecasting confidence gives communities a clearer picture of what to expect this winter, allowing families, businesses and local governments to plan accordingly.
Original reporting: Brookhaven News – ABC7 New York — read the source article.
