By OBBM Network Editorial Staff

Dan Schultz

Less than half of the nation’s precinct committee seats are filled, and that shortfall is crushing any hope of a conservative surge in the 2026 midterms.

The Vacant Ground Game: A Nationwide Shortfall

Dan Schultz explains that more than 50% of voting member slots on local committees across the United States remain empty. He notes, “We’re still at less than half strength on average everywhere,” a statistic he tracks on his website precinctstrategy.com. This vacancy rate, he says, directly translates into a weakened grassroots network that can’t mobilize voters or challenge entrenched incumbents.

Schultz points out that the lack of new precinct committeemen (PCs) means the party’s “army is at half strength.” Without these volunteers, the conservative base loses the most effective tool for influencing primary outcomes: the ability to endorse challengers and organize get‑out‑the‑vote (GOTV) efforts at the precinct level.

Predictions vs. Reality: The Uniparty’s Grip Holds Firm

Last summer, Schultz asked an AI model, Grok, to forecast primary results based on the stagnant committee participation. The model projected that 90‑95% of Republican incumbents would win their primaries, and 95‑98% would retain their seats in the U.S. House. After the primaries, the actual numbers were strikingly close: 95.4% of incumbent Republicans in state legislatures won, and every incumbent governor who ran was re‑elected.

Schultz cites specific races to illustrate the pattern. “Dan Crenshaw in Texas lost. He got redistricted. That might have had something to do with it. He lost. And Corey Mills in Florida… lost. And then Andy Ogles from Tennessee… maybe somebody else was more conservative,” he says, underscoring that even high‑profile conservatives can’t overcome the structural advantages of incumbents without a robust grassroots push.

The Unchanged Election Infrastructure

Despite Republican control of 24 state legislatures and 22 Republican governors, none have eliminated the “black box” voting machines or curtailed mass mail‑in ballot programs. Schultz emphasizes that state legislators have plenary power under the Constitution’s Times, Places and Manner Clause, yet “not one of them have done anything.” This inertia further entrenches the status quo, making it harder for grassroots conservatives to effect change.

He adds, “There’s a wall of political disinterestedness. People like me and maybe people like you who are into politics, we pay attention. We vote. But that’s only 20% of Republicans on average in the primaries.” The implication is clear: without expanding that 20%, the party’s ability to reshape its own ranks remains limited.

Turnout as the Sole Conservative Card

Schultz argues that the only viable strategy for conservatives is to boost turnout. He dismisses reliance on traditional media buys, saying, “It’s not through more mailers and TV ads and radio ads and social media stuff and signs.” Instead, he urges activists to become precinct committeemen, serve as poll observers, and directly engage voters.

He offers a concrete call to action: “Go find your local committee and tell them you want to be either a poll observer… Volunteer with one of them… Maybe be a poll observer if you think it’s worth your while. And then become a precinct committeeman.” By doing so, conservatives can leverage the limited but potent influence they do have at the local level.

Looking Ahead: Building a Sustainable Conservative Infrastructure

The takeaway from Schultz’s analysis is that the conservative movement must invest in its foundational structures, not just high‑profile races. The data shows that without a surge in precinct participation, the party will continue to see incumbent victories and minimal policy shifts.

He concludes, “Politics gets won through grunt work,” urging readers to move beyond writing checks and to commit to the on‑the‑ground effort that can truly shift the political landscape. The next election cycle will test whether conservatives can translate this rallying cry into tangible committee memberships and higher voter turnout.

In a climate where the “RINO/Dem Uniparty” appears to dominate both federal and state legislatures, Schultz’s message is a reminder that change starts at the precinct door.

The full episode of Precinct Strategy with Dan Schultz is available on OBBM Network TV.