Montgomery, Ala. – A fresh poll released by Gray Media Alabama and the Alabama Daily News gives Republican gubernatorial candidate Tommy Tuberville a solid lead over Democrat Doug Jones. The survey, conducted Oct. 16‑17 among 500 likely 2026 voters, finds Tuberville at 51.2% and Jones at 40.0%, leaving 8.9% of voters undecided. The poll carries a margin of error of ±4.38%.
Favorability and voter composition
Tuberville enjoys a favorable rating of 47.6% and an unfavorable rating of 43.7%. Jones trails slightly with a 41.7% favorable rating and 43.3% unfavorable. Despite a narrower favorability gap, Tuberville’s vote share outpaces his image, while Jones’s support appears capped – 95% of Democrats already back him.
Older voters are powering the Republican lead. Tuberville dominates among those 55 and older and holds a 22‑point advantage among voters who have cast ballots in the last four general elections.
Issue‑by‑issue breakdown
On the issues that matter most to voters – immigration, taxes, crime and infrastructure – Tuberville leads an overwhelming 86% to 9%. Among voters who rank immigration as their top concern, he commands a staggering 97% to 3%.
Economic concerns also favor the Republican. Among voters who prioritize jobs and the economy, Tuberville leads 51% to 48%, a six‑point edge over Senate candidate Rep. Barry Moore. Even among those most worried about inflation, where Jones edges ahead 48%‑41%, Tuberville still runs three points ahead of Moore.
The poll shows Tuberville attracting roughly 11% of Black voters, about double the share earned by Moore.
Ticket‑splitting and generic ballot dynamics
Ticket‑splitting appears minimal – fewer than 1% of respondents say they would support Republican Senate candidate Barry Moore while also backing Jones for governor.
Jones out‑performs the generic Democratic ballot by three points, reflecting his name recognition, yet his overall favorability remains net‑negative at -1.6.
Partisan sentiment on the state’s direction
When asked whether Alabama is on the right track, 75% of committed Republicans say yes, while 83% of committed Democrats say no. Among swing voters, only 18% say the state is heading in the right direction, compared with 52% who say it is going the wrong way.
Todd Stacy, publisher of the Alabama Daily News, noted that the poll reflects a “strongly Republican state” and that national Democratic headwinds have not yet closed the gap for Tuberville. He added that enthusiasm among Republicans appears lower than in prior cycles, suggesting turnout will be a key factor.
Methodology
The poll was conducted by Cygnal using an online panel and SMS outreach, weighted to represent a likely‑voter universe for the 2026 general election. The sample size of 500 respondents provides a statistical margin of error of ±4.38%.
These results give Alabama’s Republican base confidence heading into the fall campaign, while Democrats will need to boost turnout and persuade undecided voters to close the gap.
Original reporting: FOX10 WALA Mobile (news) — read the source article.
