In a race that could reshape Texas politics, Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico is holding a narrow but steady lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, according to a series of polls reviewed by CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten. The polls, conducted throughout July, August, September and October, each show Talarico with an average three‑point advantage. While the margin sits within the typical statistical margin of error, the consistency of the lead is unusual for a Democrat in a state that has not elected a Senate Democrat since 1988.
Poll Trend Highlights
Enten notes that candidates who maintain a three‑point lead at this stage of a Senate campaign go on to win roughly two‑thirds of the time. The data points are drawn from multiple surveys, each reflecting a comparable sample of likely voters across the state. No single poll is presented as a definitive verdict, but the repeated advantage suggests a modest upward trajectory for Talarico.
Advertising Dollars Surge
Both parties are pouring unprecedented sums into television and digital advertising. Republicans are projected to spend more than $380 million on ads for the primary and general elections combined, a figure that rivals the most expensive Senate contests in recent memory. Despite this massive outlay, the overall poll numbers have remained largely unchanged, underscoring the difficulty of shifting voter sentiment once a race solidifies.
Traditional Republicans Split Over Paxton
The internal dynamics of the Texas GOP are coming to the fore. Jeb Bush, the former governor and brother of former President George W Bush, publicly cast his ballot for Talarico, citing “deep concern about Ken Paxton’s record” and admiration for Talarico’s character and principles. Barbara Bush contributed $2,500 to a pro‑Talarico super PAC, while George W Bush co‑hosted a separate fundraiser with Senator John Cornyn to support other Republican candidates, leaving Paxton off the guest list.
Former Bush adviser Mark McKinnon told CNN’s Audie Cornish that “traditional, non‑MAGA Republicans account for a notable share of the electorate in the state and may sway the outcome.” He added that Paxton is “struggling to retain support among moderate conservatives,” and that the former president’s family appears to be distancing themselves from the Attorney General’s campaign.
Endorsements and Grassroots Support
Talarico has compiled a list of more than twenty endorsements from state Republicans, signaling a broader coalition that extends beyond the Democratic base. These endorsements include local officials, business leaders, and community activists who argue that Paxton’s record on ethics and governance raises concerns for voters seeking steady, principled representation.
Turnout Will Decide the Outcome
With Election Day approaching, analysts on both sides agree that voter turnout will be the decisive factor. Texas has not elected a Democratic senator in nearly four decades, and the race’s tight margins mean that mobilizing the electorate—particularly moderate conservatives and independent voters—could tip the balance.
As the campaign enters its final stretch, both parties are intensifying outreach efforts, emphasizing issues such as border security, energy policy, and economic growth. While the poll numbers suggest a modest lead for Talarico, the ultimate verdict will be cast at the ballot box.
Original reporting: Tampa Free Press — read the source article.
