Texans who say they will vote in the upcoming Senate race are now split evenly between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, according to a Fox News poll released Wednesday. Both candidates are tied at 49% among the likely voter sample, a shift from last month when Talarico led by two points (51%‑49%).
Trend favors the Republican challenger
The poll shows Paxton gaining modest ground among both men (+1 point) and women (+1 point) since September, while Talarico slipped slightly among the same groups (‑1 and ‑2 points respectively). Paxton’s strongest constituencies include White evangelical Christians (+52 points), White men without a college degree (+32), rural voters (+21) and seniors 65 and older (+18). Talarico leads decisively among Black voters (+65), urban voters (+29), voters under 30 (+28) and college‑educated women (+23).
Hispanic voters swing back to Democrats
Hispanic voters, who backed former President Joe Biden by 25 points in 2020 and favored President Trump by a single point in 2024, now favor Talarico by a 30‑point margin (64%‑34%). This group also prefers Democratic control of the U.S. Senate by 29 points.
Overall Senate control still leans Republican
When asked which party should control the Senate, 51% of Texans said Republicans, up from 47% in September – a four‑point advantage that reflects a modest but positive trend for the GOP.
Party loyalty and ticket‑splitting
Party loyalty remains high: 98% of Democrats say they will back Talarico, while 90% of Republicans say they will back Paxton. Notably, nearly three in ten non‑MAGA Republicans say they would cross party lines to support Talarico, and 7% of Talarico supporters say they would vote for Governor Greg Abbott, compared with 2% of Paxton supporters who would back Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa.
Voter enthusiasm and concerns
Democrats show a slight enthusiasm edge, with 69% of them describing themselves as “extremely interested” in the election versus 61% of Republicans. Among those extremely interested, Talarico enjoys a seven‑point advantage.
Both candidates receive mixed perceptions: Talarico’s net favorability is +1 point (49% favorable, 48% unfavorable), while Paxton trails by 17 points (41% favorable, 58% unfavorable). Among voters who view both candidates negatively, Paxton leads by 50 points.
Voters express comparable concerns about the candidates’ positions – 53% worry Talarico is too liberal, while 50% fear Paxton is too closely aligned with President Trump. The intensity of those concerns is nearly identical, with 36% extremely concerned about Talarico and 37% about Paxton.
Economic outlook and personal finances
When asked about their own financial situation, 43% of respondents say they are worse off than two years ago, 20% say they are better off and 36% say about the same. Those who feel worse off favor Talarico by 45 points, while those who feel better off (+49) or about the same (+26) lean toward Paxton.
Methodology
The poll was conducted Oct. 15‑19, 2026, by Beacon Research (Democratic) and Shaw & Company Research (Republican) with 2,011 Texas registered voters selected randomly from the statewide voter file. Interviews were conducted via landline (205), cellphone (1,303) and online (503). The margin of sampling error is ±2 points for the full sample and ±2.5 points for the 1,398 likely‑voter subsample. Subgroup results are shown only when the sample size reaches at least 100 respondents.
Original reporting: Fox News (HLL/CB) — read the source article.
