By OBBM Network Editorial Staff

Derived from an episode of Securing America.

What will happen if Israel’s fragmented right‑wing can’t unite behind Benjamin Netanyahu as the nation heads to the polls? The question hangs over a country still reeling from the October 7 attacks, a lingering war in Gaza, and a simmering threat from Iran.

Israel’s Political Landscape: A Deep‑State Narrative

Dr. David Wormser, a former naval intelligence lieutenant commander and current head of the Center for Security Policy’s Mideast Program, traced the roots of today’s crisis to the post‑1977 era when Israel’s left‑leaning establishment retreated into the bureaucracy after losing power. He described this bureaucracy as a “permanent deep‑state” that, despite its name, is not impenetrable. After the October 7 attacks, the deep‑state allegedly sidelined Netanyahu’s preferences, allowing military policy to proceed without his direct input.

Wormser argued that this institutional inertia has left the governing coalition vulnerable: “the establishment can’t prevent a private structure from emerging,” he said, pointing to the rise of independent channels like Channel 14 and Channel 24 that echo the U.S. experience of breaking the three‑network monopoly with Fox News, OANN, and NTD.

Polling Realities and the Fragmented Right

State‑run Israeli media, according to Wormser, paint a bleak picture for Netanyahu, suggesting his path to victory is “over.” Yet private polls still show a sizable opposition, with some estimates placing Netanyahu’s support at around ten percent. In Israel’s proportional‑representation system, even a few thousand votes can shift four parliamentary seats, making every fraction of support critical.

Complicating matters, several right‑wing parties—such as the Amcha party, the My People party, and the Your People party—hover around the electoral threshold, each polling between 2.8% and 3%. If any of these parties fail to cross the threshold, their votes are effectively lost, further eroding the right’s bloc discipline.

Left‑Wing Shifts and the Emerging Consensus on Security

Wormser noted an unexpected development: even some left‑wing leaders now reject a Palestinian state and adopt hard‑line positions on Gaza and Hezbollah. “The whole spectrum shifted rightward,” he observed, reflecting a broader Israeli fatigue with repeated ceasefires and diplomatic overtures that have failed to deliver lasting security.

This rightward drift aligns with public sentiment. When Israelis are asked about Gaza, they overwhelmingly favor the destruction of Hamas rather than a diplomatic process. Likewise, Hezbollah is viewed as a “rising threat” that must be neutralized, and many see Turkey’s policies as increasingly hostile.

President Trump’s Endorsement and the Iran Question

President Trump’s recent endorsement of Netanyahu was framed not as a personal favor but as an operational plan against Iran. Wormser praised the approach: “It isn’t really a personal endorsement of Bibi. It’s an operational plan that he’s laying out.” The former president’s message—“if you want Iran done, you have to elect Bibi”—reinforces the notion that a strong Israeli government is essential for any future U.S. kinetic action against Tehran.

Looking ahead, Wormser warned that while an immediate U.S.–Israeli strike on Iran is unlikely before the November U.S. election, the post‑election period could see a dramatic escalation. He argued that both Israel and Trump are “tired of these rounds” and may move from “mowing the lawn” to a decisive campaign aimed at regime change in Iran.

Implications for U.S. Policy and the American Public

The discussion on Securing America underscores how Israeli electoral dynamics could shape U.S. foreign policy. A fragmented Israeli right may delay decisive action, while a cohesive pro‑Netanyahu government could align closely with Trump’s hard‑line stance on Iran, potentially leading to a joint strategy that goes beyond pressure tactics to direct military engagement.

For American voters, the stakes are clear: the outcome of Israel’s elections will influence the Trump administration’s approach to one of its longest‑standing security challenges. As Wormser concluded, “the objective of the war has always been…whether President Trump wants to do it alone or wants Israel involved.” The answer may soon determine the next chapter of U.S.–Middle East relations.

In the meantime, the Israeli public continues to grapple with internal party battles, media fragmentation, and a collective yearning for security that transcends traditional left‑right divides. The coming weeks will reveal whether Netanyahu can marshal enough support to steer Israel—and by extension, U.S. policy—toward a more aggressive posture against Iran.

The full episode of Securing America is available on OBBM Network TV.