According to a Free Press Indiana poll conducted by Bellwether Research, Democrat Beau Bayh holds a clear lead in the four‑candidate race for Indiana Secretary of State. The survey of 896 registered voters – 839 of whom were deemed likely to vote – was carried out Oct. 8‑11 and carries a margin of error of ±3.4 percentage points.
Poll numbers
When asked whom they would vote for if the election were held today, 43% of likely voters said they would support Bayh, the son of former Governor and Senator Evan Bayh. Republican Max Engling, a longtime Washington staffer, earned 35% support. Libertarian Lauri Shillings received 6% and independent Greg Ballard, a former Indianapolis mayor running under the newly formed Lincoln Party, garnered 5%.
Candidate reactions
Bayh’s campaign manager, Jack Tormoehlen, hailed the results as evidence of “real momentum for change in Indiana.” He added that Hoosiers are “tired of the corruption in our state government” and that Engling would represent “more of the same.”
Engling’s communications director, Chloe Anagnos, disputed the poll’s methodology, claiming it under‑sampled Republicans. She noted that the survey included 49% of respondents who identified as Republican or leaning that way, versus 40% who identified as Democrats or leaning Democratic, and argued the poll over‑represents non‑Republican voters.
Name recognition
The poll also measured candidate name recognition. Only 27% of respondents said they had never heard of Bayh, and 35% expressed a favorable view of him. By contrast, 50% of respondents had never heard of Engling, and just 12% held a favorable opinion. Ballard, despite his former mayoral experience, was unknown to 44% of those surveyed.
Ballard’s spokesperson, Kate Shepherd, said the numbers will improve now that his campaign has launched a statewide TV‑ad push. She described the poll as “encouraging” because many Hoosiers either have no opinion of Ballard or have never heard of him, leaving room for growth.
Libertarian candidate Lauri Shillings suffered the lowest name recognition, with 65% of respondents saying they did not know her. Still, 6% said they would vote for her, and she emphasized that her campaign is focused on increasing visibility.
Spending and broader context
Campaign finance reports show Bayh’s campaign spent $3.9 million during July‑September, more than double Engling’s $1.6 million spend in the same period. Ballard’s expenditures total $182,000.
Political scientist Chad Kinsella of Ball State University suggested that Bayh’s lead may be tied to anti‑President Trump sentiment in the state. The poll found 54% of Hoosiers disapprove of President Trump’s job performance, a sharp shift in a state that Trump carried by nearly 20 points in 2024. Kinsella said the sentiment “has less to do with the Bayh name than it has to do with Trump and high gas prices.”
Other statewide races
The same survey touched on several other contests. Democrat Jessica Bailey leads incumbent Republican Elise Nieshalla for state comptroller by 39% to 36%. In the state treasurer race, incumbent Republican Daniel Elliott leads Democrat Coumba Kebe, 43% to 38%.
For the U.S. House, the poll indicated a near‑even split if congressional elections were held today – 45% for Democrats and 44% for Republicans – suggesting potentially tighter races in districts that have historically leaned heavily Republican.
Implications
If Bayh wins in November, it would be the first statewide Democratic victory in Indiana since 2012 and the first time a Democrat has held the Secretary of State office since 1994. The race remains competitive, but the current polling snapshot shows a solid advantage for Bayh as Hoosiers head into the midterm election.
Original reporting: Mirror Indy — read the source article.
