OpenSecrets, the nonpartisan organization that tracks money in U.S. politics, estimates that total spending in the 2026 midterm elections will reach a historic $11.9 billion. This figure surpasses the $8.9 billion spent in the 2022 midterms (about $10.2 billion when adjusted for inflation) and exceeds the total spent on congressional races during the 2024 presidential election cycle.
Outside Spending Fuels Surge
Independent outside spending is projected to hit $3.9 billion, an 85 % increase from the $2 billion recorded four years ago. Conservative committees currently hold a financial edge, outspending left‑leaning groups $2.03 billion to $1.67 billion, a gap of roughly $360 million.
The two largest outside spenders are Republican‑aligned: the Senate Leadership Fund, with $489 million spent, and MAGA Inc., a super PAC connected to President Donald Trump, which has deployed $353 million after September 1 and raised nearly $450 million this cycle.
Liberal Groups Respond
Liberal outside groups are primarily represented by congressional leadership outfits. The Senate Majority PAC and House Majority PAC have spent $248 million and $192 million respectively, while the newer Lower Costs Now, an affiliate of the pro‑Democrat Future Forward PAC, has reported $75 million in spending since October 1.
Candidate Committees Show Opposite Trend
Despite the outside‑spending advantage for Republicans, Democratic congressional candidates are projected to outspend their Republican rivals by more than $800 million, with expected expenditures of over $2.2 billion compared with about $1.4 billion for Republicans.
In key Senate races, Democratic challenger James Talarico in Texas has raised nearly $145 million against incumbent Republican Ken Paxton’s $22 million, forcing Paxton to rely heavily on the Senate Leadership Fund and affiliated state PACs. In Georgia, incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff has raised $115 million since January 2025, dwarfing Republican Rep. Mike Collins’s $6.5 million.
Megadonors and Dark Money
Tech executive Elon Musk leads all federal donors with $445 million contributed this cycle, including $215 million to his America PAC and $168 million to the Senate Leadership Fund. Other donors surpassing $100 million include Michael Bloomberg, Richard Uihlein, and Jeffrey Yass.
Corporate and organizational contributions also add substantially. Two entities tied to financier George Soros—Geosor Corp. and the Fund for Policy Reform—have sent more than $102 million to liberal committees. In the cryptocurrency sector, Ripple and Coinbase have combined for $63 million to industry‑aligned super PACs.
OpenSecrets identified a record $1.47 billion in “dark money”—contributions from shell companies, trade associations, or nonprofits that do not disclose donors—already flowing to outside political committees, surpassing the $1.35 billion recorded during the entire 2024 presidential election cycle.
Methodology
The projections are based on a review of candidate, committee, and independent expenditure reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, excluding transfers between committees to avoid double counting, and applying statistical models that reflect past midterm spending patterns.
Original reporting: Tampa Free Press — read the source article.
