By OBBM Network Editorial Staff

Derived from an episode of Rightside Media.

When the last vote was counted in Birmingham’s downtown coffee shop, a familiar buzz filled the air – not just from espresso machines, but from the chatter about who would win the upcoming midterms. For many Alabamians, the conversation isn’t just about the governor’s race; it’s about how the state legislature’s deep‑seated power could shape everything from highways to school funding.

Why the Legislature Matters More Than the Governor

Steve Flowers, a columnist who has written for rural Alabama papers for more than two decades, emphasized that the Alabama Constitution grants the General Assembly substantial authority over the state’s budget and policy direction. “The governor proposes, but the legislature disposes,” he noted, echoing a long‑standing saying in Montgomery. This dynamic means that even a popular governor like Tommy Tuberville can see his initiatives limited if the Republican‑controlled House and Senate choose otherwise.

Flowers highlighted that about 80% of legislative seats are currently unopposed, a figure he attributes to the high cost of campaigning and the magnetism of special‑interest money. “Special interest money gravitates the legislative races,” he said, underscoring why incumbents often face little competition.

Midterm Trends and the National Democratic Wave

Despite Alabama’s reputation as a solidly red state, Flowers warned that the national Democratic surge could ripple into the Deep South. He pointed to the Tennessee Valley, where “five or six legislative seats could be lost” as a result of increased Democratic turnout, especially in fast‑growing areas like Huntsville.

Historical patterns also play a role. Flowers recalled that in off‑year elections, the party holding the White House typically loses seats in state legislatures. With President Trump’s approval slipping nationally, Flowers believes this trend could “portend” losses for Alabama Republicans, even if the governor’s race remains safely Republican.

The Gubernatorial Contest: Tuberville vs. Jones

Former Senator Doug Jones is attempting a comeback, challenging Tuberville for the governor’s office. Flowers described the race as a classic 60‑40 scenario: “If you have a quality, good candidate running, the Democrat can only get 40% of the vote.” He cited the 2018 gubernatorial race, where moderate Democrat Walt Maddox secured roughly 40% against incumbent Kay Ivey, as a benchmark.

However, Flowers believes the 2026 contest could be tighter, estimating a possible 55‑45 split. He attributed this shift to national factors such as higher gas prices, grocery costs, and the lingering effects of tariffs and foreign policy concerns, which “affect pocket‑book issues” for swing voters.

A Close Congressional Battle in the New 2nd District

The most closely watched race, according to Flowers, is the newly drawn 2nd Congressional District. Though originally designed as a 55‑45 Republican stronghold, an influx of Democratic money has made it competitive. He singled out candidate Shamari Figures, labeling him a “carpetbagger” who lives in Mobile rather than the district he seeks to represent.

Flowers recounted a heated phone call with Figures, noting that the candidate’s wife had voted Republican in a Democratic primary, further fueling the narrative that Figures lacks genuine ties to the district. “I don’t think anybody running for this congressional district lives in this district,” Flowers wrote in his column, highlighting the local resentment toward perceived outsiders.

Turnout: The Decisive Factor

Allison Sinclair, Amie Beth Shaver, and JP Plott, the hosts of Rightside Media, underscored Flowers’ central message: voter participation will determine the outcome. “If Republican voters turn out, they’ll likely win,” Flowers asserted, adding that apathy among the base could be the Republicans’ biggest vulnerability.

He urged grassroots efforts to mobilize voters, especially in rural counties where newspaper readership remains strong. Flowers plans to continue his commentary in upcoming columns, promising to “take Shamari Figures to task” and keep an eye on the evolving political landscape.

In a state where the legislature writes the budget and the governor merely proposes, the November 3rd midterms will serve as a litmus test for Alabama’s conservative future. Whether the Republican wave holds or the Democratic tide makes inroads, the results will shape policy decisions that affect everything from road construction to education funding for years to come.

The full episode of Rightside Media is available on OBBM Network TV.