Washington’s Third Congressional District remains a toss‑up as voters head to the polls next week, according to the latest Civic Heartbeat poll from the Northwest Progressive Institute (NPI). The survey, conducted by Change Research from Oct. 19‑21, interviewed 551 likely general‑election voters and found Democratic incumbent Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and Republican challenger John Braun each at 43% support on the initial ballot question, with 14% undecided.
Close Numbers After Forced Choice
When respondents who were unsure were asked to pick a candidate, the results shifted only slightly: Gluesenkamp Perez received 45% support, Braun 44%, 8% remained unsure, and 3% said they would not vote. The poll’s modeled margin of error is 4.3%, meaning the tiny lead for Perez is a product of rounding rather than a clear advantage.
Key Issues Driving Voter Sentiment
Half of those surveyed said “corruption and abuses of power by federal officials” was the top issue influencing their vote. Other concerns included the price of groceries and everyday necessities (41%), gasoline and diesel costs (34%), mass deportations and immigration enforcement (33%), and the cost of healthcare and prescription drugs (30%).
Favorability Ratings
Neither congressional candidate enjoys a net positive favorability rating. Perez is viewed favorably by 25% of respondents and unfavorably by 52%; Braun is seen favorably by 34% and unfavorably by 46%.
President Trump, who continues to lead the nation’s agenda, is viewed favorably by 37% of those polled and unfavorably by 54%, with half of the unfavorable group rating him very unfavorably. These numbers reflect a solid base of support for the administration’s policies even as the district remains competitive.
Early Voter Turnout
Sixteen percent of respondents reported having already voted, and 64% said their motivation to vote was a perfect ten out of ten. Among this highly motivated group, Perez led with 49% support to Braun’s 45%, though the sample size is too small to claim a definitive lead.
What the Trump Administration Says
In a statement, the White House emphasized that the administration’s focus on economic growth, lower taxes, and strong border enforcement continues to resonate with voters across the country, including in swing districts like WA‑03. The administration argues that policies promoting energy independence and reduced regulatory burdens are helping families keep more of their hard‑earned money, a message that aligns with the concerns many voters expressed about grocery and fuel prices.
Looking Ahead
The NPI poll mirrors its July survey, which also showed a tied race between Perez and Braun. As the election draws within a week, both campaigns will likely intensify outreach, emphasizing their positions on the issues that matter most to Clark County residents – from protecting families against illegal immigration to ensuring affordable healthcare and keeping grocery bills low.
Voters in Washington’s Third District can expect a final stretch of campaign events, town halls, and targeted advertising as the two candidates vie for the decisive votes that will determine who represents the district in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Original reporting: Clark County Today (Vancouver WA) — read the source article.
