The United Nations weather agency has issued a forecast for a moderate to strong El Nino, which could lead to increased global temperatures and heightened risks of extreme weather events in the coming months. This announcement underscores the need for communities worldwide to prepare for potential climate disruptions.

Understanding El Nino

El Nino is characterized by the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, typically lasting between nine and twelve months. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has noted that warm ocean waters are currently driving the development of El Nino, predicting above-average temperatures in most parts of the world from June to August. The phenomenon is expected to persist until November.

According to WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, a strong El Nino event could exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall, increasing the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean. This weather pattern is known to disrupt regional climates, potentially bringing warmer temperatures globally, while increasing rainfall in southern South America, the southern United States, parts of the Horn of Africa, and central Asia. Conversely, it may cause drought in Australia, Central America, Indonesia, and sections of southern Asia, as well as lead to the formation of hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

Potential Impacts and Preparedness

The most recent El Nino, from 2023 to 2024, contributed to making 2024 the hottest year on record. Saulo emphasized that extreme heat is already one of the deadliest climate hazards, and an El Nino event could intensify this threat, leading to more heat-related illnesses, a wider spread of vector-borne diseases, and increased pressure on food and water systems. Communities already struggling with these issues may find themselves pushed beyond their limits.

Recent observations in the Equatorial Pacific indicate rapidly rising sea surface temperatures, suggesting that El Nino conditions are developing. Unusually warm subsurface conditions across the tropical Pacific, with temperatures exceeding 6 degrees Celsius above average, have created a reservoir of heat driving surface warming.

Some national weather agencies have forecast the strongest El Nino in a decade, warning of hotter, drier weather across Asia in the latter half of 2026, which could damage crops and food supplies. Farmers are already grappling with fertilizer shortages and costly fuel due to ongoing geopolitical tensions.

While there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Nino patterns, it can exacerbate associated impacts such as extreme heatwaves and heavy rainfall, according to the WMO. U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres has urged a shift away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy as a response to these urgent climate warnings.

Original reporting: Appleton, WI News Feed (HLL/CB) — read the source article.