Aaron Rodgers is officially back with the Pittsburgh Steelers. After months of consternation about his future, in the end, all it took was a report that the Steelers were growing weary of Rodgers “will he, won’t he” routine for him to come to the party, sign his one-year deal, and cement that he’s playing in 2026. Funny how that works.
This puts the whole Rodgers mess to bed, at least for another season. Now the Steelers can move ahead with some sort of certainty at the quarterback position after staring down the gun of potentially needing to start Mason Rudolph, Will Howard, or rookie Drew Allar — functionally ending the team’s season before it begins. The question now pivots to what is the ceiling of this team with Rodgers at the helm, and could this end up being a massive mistake?
The question of whether or not this is the correct move is couched wholly in one incontrovertible fact: Every NFL team needs to rebuild eventually. It’s a reality the Steelers have been staving off since Ben Roethlisberger’s retirement following the 2021 season, and to their credit, the organization has been competitive — but there’s also been a ceiling when it comes to quarterback. Whether it was Kenny Pickett, Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, or Aaron Rodgers, the team has been a consistent playoff team, but that’s where the success ends. The Steelers have been bounced in the Wild Card round during their last five playoff appearances, and you need to go back to 2017 to find the last time Pittsburgh made it out of the opening round.
With the addition of Michael Pittman Jr. there’s no question this is the best receiving corps the team has had in years, and with Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle the team has a fascinating one-two punch at running back for this upcoming season. Now it’s time to talk brass tacks: Is this new-look Steelers team demonstrably better for bringing back Aaron Rodgers, and what is their ceiling?
The Steelers finish 9-8, make the playoffs, second in the AFC North
By Mark Schofield
After months of speculation, the Pittsburgh Steelers have their quarterback for the 2026 season.
Aaron Rodgers ended that speculation, agreeing to terms on a one-year deal with the Steelers over this past weekend. Rodgers is already back at work, having been spotted inside the facility as the team opens OTAs this Monday morning.
But how much does Rodgers move the needle for the Steelers at this point in his career? Based on last season, probably not much.
While Rodgers represented arguably the best option for the Steelers at the most important position in the game, that is also a relative concept. After all, beyond Rodgers the Steelers were looking at second-year quarterback Will Howard, rookie Drew Allar, or longtime backup Mason Rudolph. Given that, Rodgers is the best option.
But this is still a quarterback that posted an Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt of 6.3 last year – ranking him 18th among qualified quarterbacks in the NFL – with a QBR of 44.4, which ranked him 27th in the league. When you look at Quarterback Efficiency, a metric that compares both Expected Points Added per Pass and Completion Percentage over Expectation, you see the rest of the picture. Here is that chart, courtesy of RBSDM.com:
Last year Rodgers was, at best, a league-average quarterback.
How much does a league-average quarterback, one year older, move the needle for the Steelers?
Probably not much, in a crowded AFC field and in particular a difficult AFC North, with the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals expected to be tough opponents this year, and the Cleveland Browns coming off a very impressive offseason.
What could be a saving grace for the Steelers is that the AFC North is paired with the NFC South this year for non-conference games, which could help their record a bit. But one particular stretch of their schedule stands out: A run following their bye week, which sees Pittsburgh play at Cincinnati, at Philadelphia, against Denver on a short week, against Houston, at Jacksonville, and against Baltimore. Those six weeks will determine their season. But right now, this looks like a team that has a ceiling of 10-7, sneaks into the playoffs, and heads home after Wild Card Weekend.
The Steelers finish 8-9, miss the playoffs, third in the AFC North
By James Dator
Just go ahead and throw in the eternally misattributed quote about the definition of insanity being trying the same thing again and again. There is absolutely no doubt that Aaron Rodgers has started to regress, and while a regressing Rodgers is still better than any alternative for Pittsburgh, that doesn’t mean he will be particularly good.
The prime issue with the passing game is that Rodgers no longer has the arm to throw deep with consistency. While he’s never been a 10+ ADoT guy, it was always an element of his game. Look back on his prime years in Green Bay: Teams got eaten alive by secondary receivers on 15-yard patterns because of the ever-present threat Davante Adams posed over the top. That was the rationale behind the mammoth D.K. Metcalf trade a year ago, but that really didn’t pan out, primarily because Rodgers can’t hit that deep ball anymore with regularity, and defenses know it.
There’s no doubt in my mind that Metcalf will return to being a 1,000-yard receiver this season with Pittman taking some of the attention in the passing game, but that doesn’t mean we’re going to see a drastically better Steelers team as a result. It will be more of a change in resource allocation, with fewer passes going to the running backs and tight end. That won’t result in more explosive plays, which is the problem I see Pittsburgh having right now as constructed.
Listen to new-school NFL coaches talk, and it’s all about winning the explosive battle. Analytics show that the team able to generate more big plays goes on to win. It used to be the turnover battle; now it’s this. Sean McVay, Ben Johnson, Liam Coen, Dave Canales — the list goes on, all preach the importance of these explosive plays. The Steelers are good at preventing explosives, but not at generating them, especially with Aaron Rodgers under center.
The AFC North is an unpredictable division, made moreso by three teams having new head coaches and the other having Zac Taylor, which is a little like not having a football coach at all. Anyone could conceivably win, but the longevity of the Steelers in the playoffs is non-existent. They would have been far better off taking their lumps in 2026, and finding their QB of the future in the 2027 NFL Draft.
Instead, they’ll limp to a near-playoff season when it could have set them up for the next decade.
